Long term H & S in Copper

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Lojanica, Jun 2, 2012.

  1. FYI. Long term H & S in Dr. Copper. JJC to 30. We may bounce soon but if we break the neckline to 30 we go. Depends on Europe and our domestic data. The bugger is the Central Banks as all the "Twist" makes for artificial conditions which have shunted money to equities and housing at the expense of base currency value. Good luck.
  2. Interestingly both the FED and China have spoken. These machinations do not happen when a robust organic rally is underway rather an anemic bear rally. The timing coincided with a bounce off the 200 day in the equities. Make your own conclusions. Hate to say it but Jim Rogers is right: buy tangibles and/or tangible proxies as protection against the inevitable stimulus debasement and wicked stagflation.
  4. Macro:
    Copper and Oil---two markers of broad economic activity-- have broken lower all the while equities have levitated on the surmised QE/Twist/Monetization/Bail-out(s) by the Global CB's. Granted that is and has been the act at least since the Lehman Debacle and subsequent rout in 08' and 09'.

    Yes there is an inordinate amount of meddling by the Fed, however, the easy trade will be short soon. It may have resumed May 1st's characteristic selloff today in equities. I do not foresee a cataclysmic rout this year (and likely not next year either) rather a bottoming process. When the gov(s) get it and finally make the necessary adjustments to once again create the conditions necessary for a sustained recovery we will most likely rally successfully for many years. That my friends will be a good place to deploy capital.

    Parsed. Keep your powder dry. Assemble lists of good companies to invest in. Establish long-term positions on prolonged weakness when fear has taken hold in the markets. In the mean time play the volatility with a moderately bearish stance for another 1-2 years but with the realization that we will have both moves up and down but are essentially rangebound between 1400 on the S&P500 and 1050.

    Good Luck
  5. Copper bounced with every other asset class.

    Big short squeeze. But it looks like the neck wasn't broken and therefore "hallelujeah" no crash this year.

    I do not like the phrase "kick the can down the road" but it has had more than enough press to make the point.

    I am always suspicious of public calls from the likes of GS especially when wink, wink our bestest of clients get the early morning call ahead of the pack. Speaking of which this rally started 24 hours before the actual ignition and rocket launch if you look closely at the charts.

    Election year?
    Simmering Bear meat?
    Spike and channel?

    Incoherent babbling or?

    Do you love disconnects from fundamentals?

    Recession and yet we rally like its 1999?

    Have a great 4th as I am taking my yearly summer month of vacation. Perhaps a lot of others are doing the same. Think about it.
  6. piezoe


    Great analysis Lojanica. I am in 100% agreement. Well done sir or madam...