Boeing is a great company and the stock is at its 52 weeks high with a seeming strong momentum. The stock is trading at $256 now. Although it seems that the only competition comes from Airbus but China has recently entered into building small planes that is using for domestic flights. These planes might not be admitted to fly internationally but things might change very quickly. China will push it to a deal with US very soon. I also believe the price will be much much less than Boeing is charging and market domination will go away. This will not happen tomorrow but it will happen sooner than we think.
Boeing Dreamliner is a very profitable franchise and Boeing has orders to be delivered years to come but Boeing's danger is that they finance their customers and cancellations can be a problem as in late nineties...Boeing (BA) and AirBus (AIR.DE) have a virtual duopoly in the widebody jet business. Boeing is the largest US exporter by far thus it's reasonable to expect a government bail out should something unexpected happen.
I do not expect BA to be so miserable to need help from the government but I expect their small plane line of production will be taken away by China. China is not Russia that wants to make its own plane for its own usage. China wants to dominate other countries too by its small airplanes which should be much cheaper than Boeing can afford to make. It is quite possible that BA to be the dog of DOW in 2018.
Dealmaker hit, the nail on the head, Boeing's dominance has only grown...they have 9yrs of backlog, over 5660 airplanes.(http://atwonline.com/manufacturers/boeing-doubles-airbus-year-date-commercial-aircraft-bookings). Years ago, I read a great book by Michael Chrichton on the airplane industry and how, the value of the company, is mostly tied into, the wing design. Boeing would have to really mess things up for DECADES to be in trouble IMO.
I did not say BA will be in trouble. It is like FORD. If I want to buy a truck, I would buy F150 but if I want to buy a sedan, I would go with Toyota or Lexus or even Hyundai. Deades ago, Ford used to dominate auto industry. BA will be able to dominate top of the line airplanes but small planes market could be taken away from them. The first smart phone was blackberry and then Apple and now every village in China is making an acceptable cheap smartphone.
True, it is like Ford, but unlike Ford their market is expanding as they get billions in new orders every month. Now Xiamoni is a company I wish I could have got into, years ago, as their explosion and private market cap is unreal. To avoid, a pissing match, if your thesis is small planes will be taken from them, gladly enlighten me to market share, percentage of revenues it is and what you think China can realistically capture. Here at $256, I think maybe $240 or $225 is possible, but $200 would be a stretch. It's PE isn't outrageous, billions in gross profit, per quarter, so fundamentally strong, so at worse it's dead money like Ford. Here research this and give me pages as it's a 20yr outlook: http://www.boeing.com/resources/boe...nloads/Boeing_Current_Market_Outlook_2015.pdf
It is not a good comparison, an over simplification in my view. One of Boeing's big businesses is defense thus both US and EU governments will be a lot more proactive than they were with automobiles. At best China will be the go to new plane manufacturer for very poor African, Polynesian, South American countries whose fleets are now comprised of used planes from 70s, 80s and in some cases even 60s. Since those countries can't really pay it will have to be a really long term credit IE no real loss to BA or AIR.DE. You are also not taking into account strong Canadian ( Bombardier) and Brazilian ( Embraer) contingent who are way ahead of China in that smaller plane category. Only threat I see to BA is strong $.
From a chartist perspective, on monthly, going up like a rocket tends to come back down like one as well.