Long SOV Short STD Pair Trade

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by dicul, Oct 14, 2008.

  1. dicul


    I just put on this trade today, please feel free to comment and critique.

    Long Sov 3.42 shares for every 1 share of STD short.

    Reasons for putting on the trade:

    1- STD announced they would be purchasing 75% of SOV for a stock for stock buy out of 3.42 shares for every one share (valuing SOV at 3.81 based on last Friday's close).

    2- Today's closing price of 3.45 for sov and 14.50 for STD represents a roughly 23% discount to the price at completion, which is expected to pass in Q1 2009.

    3- Another bank could make a better offer (There are many shareholders holding from $8+ who are upset by this low buyout price).

    STD will not likely drop this offer despite poor economic environment for these reasons:
    -STD already owns 25% of SOV.
    -STD made a lowball offer of $1.9 billion which represents less than 2% of their market cap (roughly 90 billion)

    This trade should be market neutral, with the obvious risk of STD pulling the bid which I've stated the reason why I think it is unlikely.

    Thanks, and happy trading.