Long-scalping equity options against time decay and market drift

Discussion in 'Journals' started by fullautotrading, Jan 31, 2022.

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  1. Latest update:

    upload_2023-2-28_18-29-46.png


    Our summary as of today:

    Current PNL: $ 458K
    comms: $ 24.53K
    days elapsed: 393.13 (max PNL so far 458.2K)
    Funds currently in use: 87.57%
    Initial funds: 2MM, max DD < 5%
    Current abs pos: 593 (PUTs)
    Daily avg: $116.99,
    Total fills so far: 1456

    [Realtime data, paper trading account, 2MM capital, all LMT orders: SELL at bid, BUY at ask. These trading sessions run parallel to my investors' sessions on real $$$ accounts.]


    For missing episodes since the last post, see also my journal on LinkedIn or better (since LI seems to be "losing" and messing up with posts), see posts here [in the "Journals" section] (this is just a prototype trading site that will be moved later to its domain when finished coding.
    Feel free to spam and advertise at will, as it helps me to debug while coding).

    (You will find also other Journals from other investors.)

    The latest strategy improvements include adding scalping to long protective layers too (not used previously). [ Which on average brings down the max DD to less than 2.5%. ]


    Current Payoff profile [dynamic] of the session illustrated here

    upload_2023-2-28_18-41-7.png



    Example of scalping/hedging activity, with rollovers (all options, realtime):

    upload_2023-2-28_18-45-11.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2023
    #491     Feb 28, 2023
  2. destriero

    destriero

    Outperf!

    9758A2CE-5EC3-4FC1-8F9B-FB857E44A88A.png
     
    #492     Feb 28, 2023
  3. We continue with our strategy, which, in essence, consists of keeping a dynamic balance in the long/short position while making a profit from the scalping/hedging action. Most of the time, this balance will favor the short side in order to feed a steady source of profit from decay and exceed the cost of the long (put) options. This asymmetry, created using puts, is preferred in our case in recognition of the long-term drift of the S&P and the presence of the circuit breakers.

    PnL update:

    upload_2023-6-2_0-5-10.png

    2MM initial capital, Current PnL 623K, elapsed 486 days, min PnL -93K, comms 33.3K.

    Similar results from all the investors (with PnL growing more than linearly wrt the available funds). Note that now normally we use always around 50% of available funds (to be able to cope with extreme events and be able to ride volatility bursts).

    Lately, I have added a few improvements which consist essentially of a (long) scalping/hedging game performed on ATM long puts. This has the effect to reduce the potential DD.
     
    #493     Jun 1, 2023
    dorietrading likes this.
  4. traider

    traider

    Please go live
     
    #494     Jun 3, 2023
  5. The platform is already live with more than 30MM at the moment, and growing up (not my $$$).

    [ This is a "public illustration" with real-time tickdata (not delayed) on an IB portfolio margin account and fictitious $$$, as I do not wish to be chased by tax officers. I repeat this is fictitious $$$, although all orders are executed as limit orders precisely at bid (sell) and ask (buy).
    I am actually homeless :)
    ]

    Sufficiently capitalized investors, with a portfolio margin account at IB, can run it (for free) on their own machines in full transparency, tick by tick, order by order, as long as they wish (with no obligations whatsoever).
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2023
    #495     Jun 3, 2023
  6. Current (dynamic) payoff:

    upload_2023-6-3_12-25-12.png

    You see here as the platform maintains a dynamic zone of positive payoff, ranging at the moment from 2628 (the price of the underlying S&P futures ), up to any higher price.


    The "left peak" of the payoff "mountain" at the moment reaches 2MM, which we would hit as a payoff in case of an extreme crash. On the right (global option theta) we have currently 350K (our "ordinary" profit).

    On the extreme left, there is the abyss :) ... which will never reach as the bot "slides" the payoff as necessary.

    Keep also in mind that the market has circuit breakers in place.

    This is all dynamic, as it varies continuously with each new order, and with the folio composition.
     
    #496     Jun 3, 2023
  7. traider

    traider

    how do I run it? More details please
     
    #497     Jun 3, 2023
  8. Thank you for your interest traider. It's all explained on my project page (should also be on my profile, and I have probably posted the link several times. ).

    [Please, note that it's only for "sufficiently capitalized" investors: this approach is not suitable for small funds, due to margin requirements, and its profitability increases more than linearly with funds. It can be scaled upward without limits.]
     
    #498     Jun 3, 2023
  9. #499     Jun 18, 2023
  10. 9:02 in Rome, here is an update on the public demonstration:

    currently 643K profit in 511.73 days (init cap 2MM). Small DD (<5%). And lately, much smaller with the introduction of scalping action on long legs too. Portfolio margin account (mandatory for this approach).

    upload_2023-6-27_9-3-4.png

    Info from Broker (IB):


    Last values received: Tue 27 Jun 2023 09:04:33:718 Tue 27 Jun 2023 03:04:33:718 ET
    Now: Tue 27 Jun 2023 09:04:34:255 Tue 27 Jun 2023 03:04:34:255 ET

    AccruedCash 8716.80 USD
    AccruedDividend 0.00 USD
    BuyingPower 9250157.42 USD
    FullAvailableFunds 1387523.61 USD
    FullExcessLiquidity 1634305.19 USD
    FullInitMarginReq 1347665.25 USD
    FullMaintMarginReq 1100883.67 USD
    NetLiquidation 2735188.87 USD



    (The broker is indicating a profit of 735K.)

    This is a dynamic long short play of S&P options that are constantly kept in balance to mitigate DD and maximize scalping action.

    Here is the current payoff scenario:


    upload_2023-6-27_9-10-38.png


    Example of scalping action on one layer (with multiple rollovers) [currently 88 layers, 37 auto]:

    upload_2023-6-27_9-14-39.png

    Transfer: ES FOP 20220617 2650 P GLOBEX 50 → ES FOP 20221118 2880 P GLOBEX 50
    Transfer: ES FOP 20221118 2880 P GLOBEX 50 → ES FOP 20230120 2400 P GLOBEX 50
    Transfer: ES FOP 20230120 2400 P CME 50 → ES FOP 20230131 2900 P CME 50
    Transfer: ES FOP 20230131 2900 P CME 50 → ES FOP 20230519 2900 P CME 50
    Transfer: ES FOP 20230519 2900 P CME 50 → ES FOP 20231020 2550 P CME 50



    In case you have not been following the chit-chat forum, I am now using the project returns to create a spinoff of new social media.

    ET Thread here:

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...al-or-a-chain-of-them-your-suggestions.375032
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2023
    #500     Jun 27, 2023
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