We are heading much higher. Initial targets in the SPX are 1445.50 / 1449.65 with the intermediate term target now for a rally toward the 1485.35 levels over the next 3-6 weeks. The Trend is your Friend.
This market is a complete bull trap. ISM and Chicago PMI data show contraction, consumers have the longest streak of negative savings on 74 years, the fed has indicated a tightening bias, and the housing (and by relation, mortgage equity) market continues to tank. I will go on record right now and state that the GDP number will be revised downward, as well. This is a irrational market rise. I mean, chemicals and industrial equipment makers are on a tear, at a time when there is ISM contraction! Suckers buy in at market tops. Whether this is the top or not, I don't know. I do know I would not be buying airline, chemical and deep industrial stocks like IR right now.
Even if you are right a bull trap can extend quite far. If we are going to 1500 I would rather be out of any shorts for that ride and reshort when we come back through this area we are in now.
Very true. I am always amazed at how many "top-pickers" there are out there that allow their EGO to get the best of them. Indexes are all trading above their significant MA's, the monthly close the other day was huge, sector rotation is very strong ( reflective of a bull phase ) and the indexes are nowhere near confirming a change in trend vis-a-vis the MA's and yet you have people on this website continually trying to play "pick-the-top". Not a very successful strategy, in my opinion.
Which is why I'm not trying. Refusing to buy in at ludicrous levels isn't the same as 'picking a top.' See my post a couple above. (P.S. I know you weren't specifically speaking about me. )
Very true, I agree across the board. No one can call a top perfectly, however to think this rally can go on the way it has without a minor pullback is FOOLISH thinking. Most bulls should be hoping for a small pullback to keep this rally in tact, I think the further these markets extend themselves the more of a correction they will have.
You never know when a speculative boom will end. There have been many booms over the years like the drug company stock boom, the tech bubble, the energy boom, etc. Each one had an indeterminate phase. You were not quite sure where it will end. If you had sat around wondering when it would end, then you would have never made any cash. Many people were taught a valuable lesson during the tech bubble and thats why the market appears saner nowadays. Technical analysis is closely studied. The act of trading has become a science. However, their is a new generation of trader coming to the market who did not experience that phase. The following words I am about to say will make you the most money, guaranteed... There is an ending to any boom. When the end does come, there will be another boom that will start right after. After the tech bust came the real estate boom and then after that boom came the current boom in the stock market we have now. When one boom comes to an end, then you have to start searching for the new boom. Thats how you will become a multi-millionaire. Its no secret.