Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by The Kin2, Aug 27, 2006.
Long anything Oil = $$$
I did the SHORT the ES at Fridays last run-up for any storm flair up and I am holding a position of 1300.00's .....seemed like a more conservative approach. I was thinking of the oil play though but I hate holding oil contracts over the weekend.
I'm looking to do the opposite, not right at the open though. Needs some more upside hurricane paranoia, then its going to get way overbot, which in my opinion, is a market that shouldn't be in the 70's in the first place. Short of a direct hit, or some terrorist activity, I am in oil bear mode.
And wadda ya know, Crude opens lower on globex.
Down .825 now. Go and figure. I find QM really hard to get a read on these days so I'm not trading it. Tempting, but everytime I think I may have it pegged it ramps up or plummets in the opposite direction. I have a buy order in now at 70.575, down another 1.10 from where it's at. It's down $1000 per contract from Friday's high. Was going to short it at the high but took pitty on my fellow traders. Didn't want to take everyone's money.
Thats a serious gap down for natural gas. wow.
Yeah, not sure what's up. Down 9.29% Wow is right. Hmmm. QM is down quite a bit but not nearly that bad. Is Ernesto fading?
Read my Ernesto thread. All the Ernesto storm premium factored in late Thursday evening. Now that it's looking like missing the Gulf entirely the sell-off in crude and natgas should continue....
And the beauty is crude's not oversold at all. Traders will probably be fishing for stops on the way down which could add extra short-term downside pressure...
This week I reckon we break back down into the 60's. Watch unleaded for further direction. If we don't get any more storms and Iran doesn't do anything (else) stupid then we're looking at low 60's in a few weeks. We've got production coming back online in Norway, Nigeria is better than it has been and Angola is starting to pump big-time. This is not a great time of the year to be a crude bull....
Meant Ernesto. Does nat gas fluctuate that much? Haven't really tracked it.
In my experience, natgas is the 2nd most volatile market in the world. FFA's (freight forwards) are the most volatile (in recent times)...
You gotta remember that some 70% of US natgas production originates from the Gulf and Henry Hub is in Louisiana (I think)... So any threat of a storm in the Gulf frightens the crap out of traders and when that storm looks like going away (currently only a 5% chance of storm winds anywhere near Louisiana coast) then traders sell off big-time.
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