That would be a surprise. NOAA thinks Tropical Storm Barry has a 0% chance of 50 knot winds or greater (Hurricane is 75 knots), and even if it did, it would miss all the critical stuff in the gulf anyway.
The cyclone that is developing in The Indian Ocean is what is moving oil prices today. "Crude oil trades to session highs, currently +1.23 at 66.31 : Strength in crude is being attributed to fears that a tropical cyclone called "Gonu" in the Middle East could move in the direction of the Strait of Hormuz within next 24 hours (40% of the world's oil flows through this waterway)."
Senior workers in Nigeria's oil and gas industry plan to support a proposed general strike by the country's main labor union to protest increases in the price of fuel and value-added tax, an official said. The Petroleum and Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, or Pengassan, will meet June 8 to make a decision, Secretary General Bayo Olowoshile said today. Whiting Refinery One of two shut crude units BP Plc's Whiting, Indiana, refinery will be down until the end of summer, a person familiar with the plant's status said on June 1. The second unit is expected to return to service this month, the person said. One unit was scheduled to return to service in early June and the other in early July, a person familiar said last month. Bloomberg.
The momentum indicators are showing a range forming over the next month or two between 62.50 and 68.00 (nice size range), but the news stories coming out sure don't make you feel too confident about playing it. If the strike occurs (I haven't heard anything new), and it holds $68.00, then I think playing the range will be an option.
If a strike occurs I wouldn't count on it holding 68 dollars...rather unlikely in my opinion. It's a dangerous time to be short, but the market seems to need more a catalyst to take off and prove the bulls right.