I agree with your point of view. However I think the indexes will test their 2002-2003 lows, that's 7400 for the Dow. I think this will happen very soon. Dow is already at 8000. We're talking two 4% days and we're there. From there we rally hard and furious, gold & oil will go with it. I'm not sure oil has time to go much lower. time is ticking...
Maybe a short term rally but I believe we will continue this downtrend deep into 2009 to crash the economy completely as a pretext to usher us into the North american union and reveal the Amero.
reading your posts you seems all to be experts. a friend of mine just told me a bit about options and futures yesterday. He told me: that if he was buying an call option of HOf09 for exemple @ 1020 usd for 42 000gal. with an Strike price of 2.87 (god knows what that mean). He show me on a chart that this particular option was at 1.97 dollards. He then told me that every time this option will go up by one cent he will make 420 dollards profit. today I look at the market and this option went up to 2.11 at one stage so if he would have sold his options at that time he would have made 14 time 420 dollards? is that true? and 1020 USD / 42000 gal = 0.0248... so I it seems very confusing to me. can some one explain?
reading your posts you seems all to be experts. a friend of mine just told me a bit about options and futures yesterday. He told me: that if he was buying an call option of HOf09 for exemple @ 1020 usd for 42 000gal. with an Strike price of 2.87 (god knows what that mean). He show me on a chart that this particular option was at 1.97 dollards. He then told me that every time this option will go up by one cent he will make 420 dollards profit. today I look at the market and this option went up to 2.11 at one stage so if he would have sold his options at that time he would have made 14 time 420 dollards? is that true? and 1020 USD / 42000 gal = 0.0248... so I it seems very confusing to me. can some one explain?
Sorry I can't help you there. I'm just learning options myself. I trade futures. I think it's much easier to trade. The options strategies are quite complicated. I suggest starting with stocks (USO for oil) and then once you master that try futures.
Thanks. I've been totally off yesterday and today. I can't get on the right side. It's very frustrating. The dollar doesn't know if it wants to pull back or make another attempt at going higher. Oil & Euro are in limbo as a result. Oil is following the S&P and the Euro at the same time. Well now we're at a crossroads because Euro is in a downtrend and S&P broke out. So will Euro break out? If so dollar is down and oil is breaking out as well. This is a big moment. If Euro & Oil breakout it will be a nice move up. A bear rally, before going back down...
Crazy action today, oil is trying to breakout of its down channel (several trend lines) and this triangle consolidation. Volume is picking up and price is going down so the breakout on the upside looks to be a false breakout. I'm short from 63.50.
Euro in same situation. If oil & euro continue down and the S&P goes up, it'll be a de-correlation. A big move should result. I'm short euro from 1.275 if we confirm breakout up on these I will reverse and go long..
Longer term oil chart, this is 60m (other is 15m). I use 60m for trend and channels and then 15m for entries and exits. Sometimes 5m to see the volume patterns going on.