Well after Chinas GDP number wasn't a complete flop, like many had suggested, I am now long oil into the OPEC meeting. I believe it will be a buy on rumor sell on news situation and oil will sell off again after the meeting, unless they decide to cut some ridiculous amount of production of course. I can see that Iran and Venezuela will be pushing hard for a cut because they are becoming too dependent on income from high oil prices. I'm just not sure how Saudi will react to all of this. What do you guys think about the next 2 weeks?
Grabed oil at 84, took a dive on me to break into the low 70's, bought more. Ended today above 74. Short term is anyone's call. Long term, 6 months or more....120 or so. each dip, I buy. I do not add on rallies, it can be, well, a kick in the balls.
In my view, a few major trends have at this point exhausted themselves, i.e. the move down from the 140s in oil and recent panic selling in the equity market. I have no opinion on equities because I don't trade them, but it seems oil will either consolidate in range bound fashion in the 70s, or make a rally. A long position going into the meeting could be a good short term play. I could be totally wrong but usually after markets provide hugely profitable trends, they break down for a while and go back and forth. So, I wouldn't really expect the oil market to really do a whole lot on its own in the near term, either up or down. I just closed a short position a few days ago, and I'm going to stay out until I get some clearer signals of where things are going.
My take is oil is breaking through support and is moving down fast. I would think that it would move up on the OPEC cuts but I guess that was already priced in, and people took profits. I entered short today, not knowing about the OPEC meeting. I did it based on the charts. I'm going to be cautious though.
someone on bloomberg made an interesting comment that a cut in production would actually be a negative thing for oil price because it will be perceived as very bearish by traders "because opec is cutting prodcution that must mean demand is going way down" so his thesis was that either way oil is heading down... my own opinion - i have none i don't trade oil... sorry
to say "CL going to $30 by Z11" is a total nonsense - literally. it either goes down to 30 over the next 3 years (which is a bs prediction because who knows over 3 years time) or the crude curve steepens and all up to Z11 goes below 30 (which is another bs prediction). your friend from the floor should have his brain checked... p.s. personally i also believe that irrespective of how much opec cuts we may revisit 60 in the short term - not much less for obvious reasons.
Oil is no longer mid-longterm tradeable.. lol Sorry, its hard on all of us, but if you wnat to trade oil now you have to change and get a whole new style of trading it, and gna have to day trade it. Since oil isnt 'GOING TO' $30 or $45 or anything else... lol Its simply gna range up n down, up n down, up n down, day after day after day..., for months n months probably. It may touch 45 eventually 1 of those days, but you get go short now and just sit there, even if you did have a stoploss over the $100 level, you will endup just holding a loss or being in very small profit for a long time potentially! lol As its now moveing directions now, its just ranging sideways with the occasional spikes intraday.