beat me to it ! seriously though ... I do not think however serious and terrible the event is locally in that part of the UK ... it will have much of an impact on prices unless the dealers open up oil pricing sunday night to catch dumb money buyers who buy with market orders ? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4517962.stm
Actually, I'll let the bulls push it up on thin volume (which I hate to trade), then I'll look to sell soon after the NYMEX floor opens as the locals try to retake control ...
just more of the reasons to keep buying oil on pullbacks --- the oil long play has been the most powerful trade of the year {well the move in gold has been sweet also}. with oil you can go to bed every night with long positions and sleep well {and oil keeps giving good pullback opportunities to reload positions}. there will continue to be news events that keep re-initiating oil rallies and probably for many years to come.
hi macro ... do you mean equities in the energy sector or oil futures prior to the hurricane (s)? being long crude oil futures for example on the way down from 70-71 - the low 50's would have crushed most accts
for buying on pullbacks i am talking about oil futures now that we have had our post hurricane pricing settle out --- to me it should have been pretty obvious that once the hurricane "play" was gone then oil was going to need to find some area of support. at this point i have been very comfortable with buying oil futures below $57.50 with a scale-in method that i use with other futures systems. if oil maintains a downtrending channel {from the highs} then i will keep initiating my scale-in buying at lower levels during any additional pullbacks. with the recent 56.70 pivot i may start my next pullback scale-in at 56.75 or 57.00 --- my current longs are down to only a 1/4 position so if oil spikes and runs Monday then i may take about 80% of these positions off the table if we can get above 61.00 again. the oil rally to the 70 plus level this year was a great run though --- one of the best futures plays for the year imo.
http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1205711,00.html More than 60 billion gallons of fuel erupted in a ball of flames hundreds of feet in the sky, creating an acrid cloud of smoke which is stretching for miles and moving south-eastwards. I guess that's a typo. But 1 million barrels is still significant.
Anybody who is long at these prices has to consider there is obvious demand destruction when oil is above 60. Considering there will be expansion in oil production for 2006 I think weâll see oil 50 much sooner than 70s.