Non Close Day < 1316-17 for Long Term Buyers. (Multi-Supports) Fair Value return ? No ! Unfair Low ? Perhaps. The Brave Buyer.
Good luck. I've been bullish for a while but I gave up today. Neutral now. This could swing either way. The market's not behaving acceptably for a bull market, in my opinion. Especially not in Europe, of course. Furthermore there are some problems now for which no solutions are remotely in sight. I'm mainly referring to Italy but also the overarching problem of the ECB ignoring rating agencies and everybody in Europe pretending nothing is wrong again. I liked buying into the Greece panic because that was a well defined problem that everybody including officials were worrying about with a well defined solution which in my opinion would be sufficient at containing the whole problem/risk as it had been defined by the market. The new problem/risk is very prone to unforeseen escalation for which there is no contingency and which would sort of come out of the left field if something really goes wrong. Furthermore nobody seems to be developing any solutions because the consensus opinion seems to be that everything is fine with Italy. When markets disagree with politicians so sharply it's possible the politicians will be right in the end but I'm not going to risk it. The market is clearly saying Italy is not creditworthy anymore and politicians are saying hedge funds are trying to destroy Europe. I'm not going to side with the politicos like I did on the Greek crisis when the market's message is so crisp. Volatility is in the air.
Thx Alcoa: Aluminum market outlook and Alcoaâs ability to control costs Alcoaâs unit volumes are expected to increase with a higher alumina production ramp up in Suriname and Point Comfort, as well as higher production of primary metals with the restart of idle facilities. This, coupled with ~4% QoQ increase in aluminum prices, will help Alcoaâs topline. However, the rise in electricity costs, increasing fuel oil and caustic soda prices, are expected to affect the bottomline. In addition, the stronger currencies in Brazil, Canada, Australia and Europe are expected to have an adverse effect. I believe that cost concerns are already built in the sell side models to some extent. The consensus 2Q estimate has been declining from a high of $0.36 in mid-May and currently stands at $0.34. Going forward, the prospects for the shares depend on the outlook for the aluminum market and Alcoa's ability to control costs. The supports must fail at the close, not before. So, I wait with the Long mind !