For spreads, I wouldn't call decisions about width "forecasting". It may be driven by margin considerations, or the average range for the tenor, or the amount of risk I feel like taking on a given trade. That's quite different from the "working" strike. It's not, of course; I used shorthand in the hope you'd understand. You did.
I understand your frustration; it took me a hell of a lot of skull sweat and pounding my head against the brick wall until I broke through. @destriero's posts here were invaluable.
Love atticusdestpoopy terminology and thoughts Lets say I think $SPY will be >$600/share by Jan 2025 Would it be better to trade a bunch of weeklies, every week, or monthlies, every month, or 4-5-6-7 months out and leverage it?
Shorter duration and roll bc you're not making a bet on implied vol. The point about rates is to show that the implied forward will impact your return in vol if short rates move. LEAPS are best used to make a bet on implied vol in a changing rate-environment or to work short dated maturities against LEAPS (calendar structures).