Always be Careful in the market. Period. It's when you start Assuming things and overthinking things...that your trading acct can start to dwindle, The market is part art, part science...ever so more true the shorter the time frame -- or day viewpoint,
You could buy an ATM long put And an ATM long call And you would make money no matter what it does. All you would have to do is guess how volatile it will be.
Buy and long as well as Sell and short is the equivalent in trading parlance. And going long an atm straddle makes only sense when you estimate future realized volatility to be larger than the volatility implied in the straddle components, roughly speaking. "all you would have to do... " is a term generally implying an account riddled with losses.
then if that doesn't work you could just do the opposite Sell the atm put Sell the atm call It makes money either way.
Right, then everyone should do it, right? Are you aware that what you are saying does not make sense whatsoever? Just wondering...
It makes as much sense as trying to guess what the market will do makes. I don't see how guessing what the volatility will be makes any less sense than trying to guess the direction.
%% Remember the charts, on that move,[9/11] EddieMorra?? The downtrend bear market reversed,[SEPT 2011,aka 9/11] to an uptrend bull market [S&P 500/benchmark /SPY, monthly candlecharts.] Panic sellers never win ; planned sellers can win. Not a prediction.