Locked Out of The Debt Markets

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Swan Noir, Jun 19, 2012.

  1. It seems to me that as countries get "locked out" of the debt markets and are unable to borrow except from any non-governmental or quasi-governmental source the entire game changes.

    I just don't see any of them getting back in soon and without the capacity to refinance in the market they are doomed.
  2. It's been said before, and I'll say it again: floating exchange rates provide natural tariffs against more efficient exporters (Germany/France) versus the laggard periphery (spain/portugual/greece etc). Keeping less productive countries in the euro only enslaves them further to the Germans, who now hold the keys to their future. As Spain and Greece keep going back to the ECB/IMF for another round of funds, the Germans demand more and more concessions. Already, the G20 announced a "banking union" for Europe, which sounds like the beginnings of a fiscal union. That's pretty much the only solution at this point. The real cause of all this is Western deindustrialization. The jobs went to Asia (or Germany). Most Boomers are idiots. What can we do? Interesting factoid: Greece's economy has contracted 22%, and their budget deficit is (still) at 9% GDP. To run a balanced budget, Greek GDP contracts another 9% x fiscal multiplier (1.6) = 14% GDP. That's a 36% GDP contraction, all in. Great Depression levels.
  3. There is only about ~900 billion paper and coin dollars.
    There is about ~14 trillion dollars worth of credit supplied by banks.
    There is about ~55 trillion dollars in total debt, again, supplied by banks.
    What backs the dollar is the faith that the 14 trillion dollars will some day pay the 55 trillion dollars off.

    Looks like US is operating a Ponzi/Pyramid/Heads I win Tails You lose scam on global scale since Nixon Shock.