Get your cash ready. We're going to see some selective, once in multi-decade buying opportunities in the next 4 to 12 weeks. I did emphasize 'selective.' You may not get fabulous returns on these newly acquired positions soon, but you will get them ultimately, and you're not going to get that great a return with your money in bonds, money markets, CDs or treasuries over the near term, anyways.
agree...which sectors/stocks you think present the best opportinities? i am thinking pharma stocks have great value, maybe a few financials.
I like Eli Lilly in the pharma sector, some financials may finally be ripe for bottom picking, and if we get a crash in Boeing, Caterpillar, UTX, HON, GE and IR - I like those for long term holdings. There are some absolutely kicked to the curb retailers of high quality, too, but their recovery is a long way off. Some tech names will shine - I like STX as it moves to try and build a model incorporating solid state flash drives replacing conventional drives, too. If it succeeds in bringing down costs, it will own the laptop market for years to come. FMD will not be on my buy list.
If Bernanke DOES NOT raise rates soon to crush oil and commodity costs, anyone with money in equities will rue the day he was born. This is especially true if Trichet makes good on his threat to raise rates. Oil is nearly perfectly correlated in killing off equity markets here.
Wooowww! Amazing prediction! Wooowww! CRUSH oil and commodity costs with a series of fractional rate hikes off of near historic lows. Wooowww!
Triichet is not an independent banker. He is most likely lying. Raising EUR rate (while we know that the fed cannot raise rates soon) means a further devaluation of the dollar. What trichet can do (and probably will do) is the opposite of what he is saying. He will most likely be pressured to DECREASE interest rates, which means the dollar up, and oil down. He might come in the next few days, and say we have a market coming down and ride the credit crunch horse, and say I am changing my mind. With the above and the legislation regarding speculators are the main current exit from trouble. We all know that the french do not walk the talk, and Trichet is french. I however walk my talk, and I shorted his beloved EUR, and bought the dollar. EUR/USD is coming down, and trichet is a liar.
Interesting, if somewhat random, thought process. Don't think Trichet is going to cave any time soon, but this article was a thoughtful read... -------- EUR/USD: Storm Clouds Gather Over Europe, Euro's Last Hurrah(2) Tuesday, July 01, 2008 1:29:00 PM New York, July 1st. In addition to the spats over internal politics, the Lisbon Treaty ratification is undergoing some strains, Polish President Kaczynski says he won't sign saying it is pointless after the Irish "No". The Czech president noted similar concerns earlier, the Germans are awaiting Supreme Court decision. Add in Denmark's recession; soft Euro zone unemployment data, which held steady at 7.2% after forecasts of a decline to 7.1%, and revelations that the latest data reveals that unemployment edged up in Ireland, Portugal and Spain in May. Plus falling consumer sentiment in Ireland that dropped to its lowest level on record (1996) 42.2 June vs 48.8 in May. Spanish Fin Min Solbes is forecasting low growth "we had 0.3% growth in the first quarter; growth will possibly be less in the second"; and the recipe is baked for a tumultuous French EU presidency. The ECB's 0.25% hike on Thursday will not be well received by local politicians. We may get a spike in EUR/USD after the rate hike, but its looking more like one and done. Spot last 1.5805.