Lloyd Doggett (D-TX 25th) upset defeat on the way. His opponent is Donna Campbell, M.D. Remember this? A crowd of protesters show up to demand he votes 'no' on Obamacare... then shortly after "he's more resolved then ever to pass a health care plan". Fast forward to today and 1 in 4 from his own party are for repeal of the law. This is an example of one race that's not even on the radar as being a close one, only because the statistical models rely too heavily on historical data. If 25% of the people in his own party want to repeal the law he voted for, and forcefully supported in the face of protests, I think we're going to see a big upset next month.