LLL: Defense Electronics

Discussion in 'Trading' started by waggie945, Mar 23, 2004.

  1. wadef


    Did you hold LLL as it dropped from 65 to 35 during 2002? When do you cut your losses on a long-term investment?
    #11     Mar 26, 2004
  2. Got lucky and sold a third of the position at $134 ( pre-split )
    And hedged the rest by selling calls and buying puts.

    I have also listened to every single one of the quarterly conference calls since the IPO in 1998 and have a thorough understanding of the product line and direction that this company is going. CEO Frank Lanza is just about the best CEO you can find, anywhere. Part of the drop that occurred from $40.00 down into the $35.00 area was associated with a Bear raid and some nicely ( what I believed to be ) "planted" articles by some not so credible organizations, trying to cast a TYCO cloud over L-3.

    This was very much unfortunate, especially when the company was allowing for a tremendous amount of "transparency" and was breaking down their revenue and earnings numbers to 4 divisions for all to see.

    The fact that this company is now "outperforming" the bigger Prime Contractors like LMT, NOC, and GD is very heartening because the Street is finally figuring out that L-3 is not dependent on the large scale defense platforms like the Primes, and that the CEO knows what he is talking about when he says that the company can grow at double-digits even with the DoD's budget coming in with a 3% growth rate.

    The cash flow alone that this company is throwing off is a significant testament as to how they are performing as a company. Note: 23% of their revenues last year ( $1.3 billion ) came from ISR, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.
    They provide 80% of all the "data-links" on the U2, the Predator, the Shadow, and the GlobalHawk. They are at the forefront of the "Digital Battlefield".

    I can go on and on, but I will let you do your own due-dilligence.
    #12     Mar 26, 2004
  3. wadef


    Waggie, I'm not really interested in the stock. I'm interested in whether you have defined stop-loss rules that you won't violate.

    For example, one might sell 1/2 his position at a 20% gain and hold the rest until the 100-day MA is penetrated or there's an apparent head-and-shoulders top or some other technical event (as opposed to a fundamental change such as a decrease in the rate of earnings growth).

    I take it you don't. Interesting.
    #13     Mar 26, 2004
  4. I'm not really at liberty to discuss why L-3 has been an investment in my portfolio for as many years as it has. But I will ask you this, if you were considered an "insider" and had stock that was defined as such, do you think that you might be held to "restrictions" that one might otherwise not be held to?

    And would this not necessarily have anything to do with "technicals" or stop-losses?

    Please feel free to get back to me.
    #14     Mar 26, 2004
  5. wadef


    I don't know whether you'd have restrictions, my friend, nor what they might be. I thought "insiders" were entitled to sell stock, but I am not one.

    Is this a rhetorical question?
    #15     Mar 26, 2004
  6. I suggest that you take some time to speak to someone that is considered an "insider or has "restricted" stock and learn a thing or two, otherwise you might be better served asking questions that are more relevant to your own personal financial situation.
    #16     Mar 26, 2004
  7. Traded up as high as $59.25 intraday.
    $58.54 last.

    Selling longs and selling calls for "hedge".
    #17     Mar 29, 2004
  8. cable


    Killing is my business, and business is good.
    #18     Mar 29, 2004
  9. Not really.

    They don't make bombs.
    They make secured communication systems, data-links on UAVs, and do a lot of aircraft upgrade and remodernization, training simulators, and helicopter support ( Fort. Rucker ).

    #19     Mar 29, 2004
  10. cable


    Being an enabler is good too. According to Cheney, the war on terror is here to stay, so I can't see a well-run military tech company going under for a while...

    I bookmarked the links, I'll watch for "reasonless dips" and think about it then.
    #20     Mar 29, 2004