For me the edge I use tells me in advance if the es will go up or down with an extremely high probability before it happens. But its no green light / red light. I have multiple signals that I have to analyze correctly in order to be profitable. So the hard part, is understanding the data in a correct manner plus applying it in a timely fashion, and giving the trade enough room, for example not getting stopped out on noise, plus having the patience or courage to hold til the target is reached. Also, the rest is including money management, not over trading, and psychology which is the other 50% of the equation required once you have an edge.
Brian/Blox Oraclewizard explains an answer to your question pretty well. Prove you have an edge....too many people think they have one when dont and are just really hanging onto something to be in the game somehow without validating it correctly in an objective manner. Also Look up Expectancy, Edge and risk of Ruin on the site and how they are related to trading. I am glad you are only trading one contract now. There is also no problem in going back to sim to validate your edge. Something I dont think you were doing when trading Sim before. Many again dont treat sim in that way. Best John
I also after trading real money contracts, do trade in sim, to make sure that I understand what I am doing, and to also test any new ideas. It also takes the stress off. Trading for me with real money causes a certain level of emotion, going back to sim frees my mind to get it thinking again. Also, sometimes I have an urge to take a trade which is not exactly correct based on my experience, and so will do it sim to avoid the problem of trading when bored.
I've back tested a couple different strategies for bull/bear trend that have good success rate if used in the right market. I can't ever tell what kind of overall trend there is until after the fact. That's why I feel I have better chances trading my own discretionary style on the 5 min because I think I have a pretty good Idea of where the market is headed based on volume and order flow in the short term. Key words "I think I have a good Idea" lol I'm going to go back to sim next week. I'll still posts my trades ....Might as well since I really didn't do too hot this week. I've got nothing but time and energy on my hands to learn this stuff....
Thats the spirit. Protect that 100K with all of your might..... This game is deadly in the wrong hands Best John
wow...$300K at age 22 to trade...wow...beyond wow...I personally would trade all futures...more leverage available...this is my opinion only
That's what has turned me on about futures. The leverage. People say that leverage is so dangerous, but with proper risk and money management it looks like it is a HUGE advantage in making money.
That's the best lesson you can learn so young, risk management. If you never allow yourself to be tempted to use your leverage and large account as an "edge", you will do well.
bingo...with the type of cash you got...you could trade 10, 20 ES cars and never even really feel a loss...well, a small loss...this is my opinion