Specifically: reactions to reports like this. http://www.agweb.com/article/cattle_inventory_declines_NAA_University_News_Release/ In addition: price action and price levels. The question is how high can this go for prices to begin to affect demand ? 160, 170, 200 ? Of course, this fact does not provide much comfort for the bears: This could be a trading affair until the inventory report on Jan 1st, 2015.
OK fair enough. I'm just curious what will finally get you to pull the trigger. Fundamentals are best traded via spreads, not outrights. Technically I can't find anything weak about this. Just curious what I might have been over looking.
Nothing....and I agree with you on the technicals. It's the fundies that I am looking at...with an emphasis on demand for beef: 1) weakening retail demand due to $10+/lb steaks. 2) consumer switch to cheaper alternatives (pork, chicken, etc). 3) El Pollo Loco effect - everyone moving to healthier, lower-fat alternatives The big money is always made if you are correct on the fundies and you time it right technically. As long as 160 is not breached upside on the next up-move, then that could be the time to short it.
Big pressure on the front months this morning.....reducing that steep backwardation. Where's the short term bottom here for October: 150 ?
Might as well cancel that bull swing call for now. LOL, this thing is clearly rushing down. It might go to the original lower price I thought before.
A lot of the move down today may be attributable to the Putin sanctions on the import of beef and poultry. Lean hogs down hard as well today. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/08/06/russia-bans-us-ag-imports/13682737/