Live Cattle - Top ?

What do you all think of +feb/-apr at this point? Seems like the spread might diverge a little from here. I haven't paid much attention to the cattle spreads before, but just saw that and thought it was interesting.

 

I think that the Apr-Jun spread is more interesting....with the play being long Apr, short Jun.

 

NOW it may be safe to say that a top is in and a big drop is coming.

 

Just a matter of selling highs long enough and hedging with Debit spreads, it is tiresome, but if price continues to go down, first target is hit at 160, and look to sell rallies. Will keep short till min of 121, and of course recalculating rollovers.

 

Hello guys,

from a Fundamental point if view, do you know why Live cattle is underperforming feeders in this little "crash"? Thanks

 

Big move down today. Deflation theme appears to be hitting all commodities.

 

Market looks confused today. Cash index off hard, feeders down, front month of live cattle hanging in there. Maybe some end of the year fund liquidation?

 

Well, the front months held the 160 level....so that can be construed as bullish.
I think we go down pretty hard if that level breaks.

 

We're going back up a bit.....April/June long spread appears to be working.

 

Feeders close to limit down, cash trade is coming off a decent chunk. Live cattle are hanging in there better. I will be taking a close look at the revised CFTC Commitment of Traders this afternoon to see if it looks like funds may be getting out of there long positions.