Bullish charts, agricultural commodities need a run. I'm going to buy some soon, the stupid commodity account takes so much time to open and deposit funds and *curses* Anyways, I'll post when I get my contracts.
I'm looking at wheat too. Definitely due a bounce and poss a run? I doubt I'll pay too much attention to the others you mention: the PMs and #11 are enough to be getting on with and I don't want to spread myself too thin ... but the wheat is sure tempting.
I can't comment on agriculturals as a whole as it's not a sector I watch. My interests are precious metals and to a lesser extent energy. However, these 2 sectors require me to keep an eye on commodities in general and my feeling is that wheat has not had the run that most other commodoties have had of late. I'm no expert, just looking at the charts and reading a bit of background. BTAWTHDIK IANAE DYODD
Well, I agree on KC wheat but I honestly can't find any bullish factors in other ag commodities that would force a trade. I was just recently noting how many traders (not you in particular) are following the Jim Rogers rule of all commodities must go up. Does anybody look at planting estimates and the stocks to usage or live cattle placements and slaughter weights anymore.
I couldn't comment on the cattle/weights/slaughter stuff, I do gold and oil not ags. Jim Rogers imho talks a lot of sense, his background is solid and his track record speaks for itself. Does a rising tide float all boats? Not if some of those boats have holes in the hull. That said, we can all see what the commodity sector (crb) has been doing for the last 2/3 years and brief consideration of the global geopolitical/economic situation will go a long way towards explaining this boom. I have noticed that for the past 3 years there are times when the stocks lead the underlying commodity and other times when the commodity leads the stocks (up or down). I'm not smart enough to time this; I jump in at pull-backs (usually weeklies) and hang on.
I do respect Jim Rogers but when it comes to commodities I find little evidence that a rising tide lifts all boats. Commodities respond on their own supply and demand profiles. So while metals and oils may be in high demand other commodities are down and out, cotton and cocoa come to mind. I think Jim Rogers would do better to examine each commodity on its own merits rather than just lumping all commodities together under the heading of the CRB which is heavily weighted to oil like all the other commodity indexes. These are interesting times though for the metals and oil of which I am a bull.
Not my area, but if Chindian demand for eg confectionary and clothing do anything like their demand for steel and oil, where do you see eg cocoa and cotton in a couple years time? Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating getting into these sectors, but we are in interesting times. About the only thing I'm sure of is that PMs and energy are going up. I recently got into #11, mainly as an energy play, which is how I found this site.
GF Are you in the US? a futures a/c should only take a week or so to set up. I'm in the UK and even using snail mail I've set up US futures trading accounts within 3 weeks. As you know, best not to rush these things ;-)