Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. themickey


    lithium trader & investor expectations are that lithium prices could rise in 2019.
    The lithium price outlook sharply divides the bulls and bears as both global supply and demand are hard to get an accurate forecast on due to the complex nature of operators on both side of the equation.
    Adding to the opaqueness is the fact that neither lithium spot or futures prices are openly traded on an exchange or similar public price-fixing mechanism such as gold, oil, copper, or silver prices for example.
    Investors are reliant on the prices reported by the miners themselves to get a gauge on where prices sit.
    In the absence of any other news it’s likely that the lithium miners are heading higher on some strong prices being privately reported by miners or industry players.

    Around 60% of total lithium produced globally comes from the “lithium triangle” in the region of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.
  2. themickey


    (News; 2 Days ago)
    All three major US equity indexes gained at least 4% on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing just short of a 5% surge. It’s the first time that has happened since 2011, according to Bloomberg.

    Major mining companies were caught up in the market frenzy on Wednesday with lithium producers and potash miners enjoying some of the heaviest buying.

    Among fertilizer producers, Israel Chemical led the charge with a 7.3% vault in the value of its shares trading in New York. North American potash giant Nutrien gained 5.1%, Mosaic surged 6% and Germany's K+S was also up on the day.

    Lithium producer Livent Corp, recently spun out of chemical company FMC, was the best in its segment trading 6.2% higher, followed by Chile's SQM up 5.7% and US-based Albemarle with more modest gains of 4%.

    Top listed copper producer Freeport-McMoRan was the best performer among the big caps, jumping 6.3% in New York. The sector's diversified heavyweights led by BHP with a 4.5% advance, all made strong gains on the day.

    Canada's largest mining firm, Teck Resources, traded 5.5% higher while fellow Vancouver-based firm Ivanhoe Mines bounced 8.9% in value on Wednesday. Cameco, the world's largest uranium mining company, traded 5.3% higher.

    With a pullback in the gold price from a six month high hit yesterday, investors in gold mining companies preferred to take profits with Barrick Gold trading flat and Royal Gold, Goldcorp and Franco Nevada losing more than 1% on the day.

    Wednesday was the first time ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg that stretches back to 1990, in which more than 500 stocks in the S&P 500 finished positive (there are actually 505 stocks in the S&P 500).

    The only counter preventing a perfect performance for the index was number two gold producer Newmont Mining, the only stock in the S&P 500 to end Wednesday in the red.
  3. Here4money


    I tracked LIT ETF for about a year or so. Performance was underwhelming. Supply may dry up due to flamingos in Chile, driving prices upwards
  4. themickey


    This breakthrough makes fixing broken lithium batteries a breeze
    Lithium-ion battery packs are ubiquitous – powering laptops, electric cars, and even Mars-faring vehicles such as the Curiosity rover. They have a problem, though: if one of their cells – or any other component – breaks down, the whole pack stops working. Because of the way batteries are built, by welding or glueing parts tightly together, to fix one is almost impossible.

    “It's a lot like a safe,” says Amrit Chandan, who holds a PhD in fuel-cells technology. “You open it, you destroy it – and you can't put it back together. You can't repair it.”

    Recycling the lithium is also inefficient; the result is simply that a lot of batteries are disposed of having still years-worth of life left in them.

    Concerned at the situation, and worried that it would only worsen as electric vehiclesbecome more commonplace, in 2015 Chandan joined forces with mechanical engineer Carlton Cummins, in order to find a solution. Following months spent disassembling batteries, Cummins came up with a new lithium-ion battery design: it keeps cells together by means of compression, making it possible to service the pack when individual parts fail.

    “You take a cell out, and replace it with a new one. We extract all of the value from the cells, which are no longer thrown away when they still work,” Chandan says.

    He and Cummins’s 20-people-strong company, Aceleron, is now selling packs of various voltages and sizes, used in vehicles, watercrafts, and buildings – working with partners including oil and gas giant Total and energy companies BuffaloGrid and Innogen to bring their technology to developing regions in Africa and the Caribbean.

    “Our product is really a solution for a lifetime,” Cummins says. It's about time someone took charge. (Forget the pun LOL :))
    vanzandt likes this.
  5. themickey


    Lithium appears to be a bellwether for the whole market in general being my opinion.
    Standby for some action once the market turns.
    Patience is the key.
  6. Here4money


    I disagree...lithium started taking a dump in Nov of 2017, tech in Oct of this year. Outside of battery powered equipment/laptops/vehicles, it's a non-issue. Copper is a better bellwether IMO (started dumping in June following tariff threats).
  7. Solid State Batteries will be the future, Japanese might be ahead of the curve due to certain patents, depending on the main commodity used will determine lithium price future

    If lithium is needed in the Solid State EV Batteries, lithium will become the new oil, literally. If they find the best possible way for energy density in solid state isn't through lithium, then it will plummet in value... I believe if your gonna bet on Lithium, keep a very close eye on Panasonic,Toyota and that Japanese consortium working on Solid State, even Tesla is pretty deep in batteries and also in the Solid State race, the moment you get a wif they replaced lithium, bounce... But if research White paper's point to lithium included, your money. Solid State is an industry I will put a lot of money in, so I am always keeping an eye out. Panasonic might sky rocket in few years, if you want when I see new news on solid state batteries I can message you and keep you updated

    Good luck!
    vanzandt likes this.
  8. vanzandt


    Put me on that mailing list.
    Ya know TSLA is already waaay in bed with Panasonic fwiw.
    Just from memory, they opened up a very large facility in NY state.

    Edit: Ok it was solar stuff.

    But they are definitely in the battery gig together too.
  9. vanzandt


    SQM is a good play. Unfortunately, its kinda betting on politics more than the actual company. Its way down though.
    About 20% of the float is short too last I looked.
    Might be a reason for that.

    Chile’s lithium giant SQM sees prices falling further this year

    Soquimich (SQM) lithium mine on the Atacama salt flat, the world's second largest salt flat and the largest lithium deposit currently in production, with over a quarter of the world's known reserves, in northern Chile. (Image courtesy of SQM)
    Chilean lithium miner SQM confirmed Friday it expects realized lithium prices to be lower in the second half of 2018 partly as a result of new supply ramping in Australia and the company’s own predicted increase in sales, even though global demand is forecast to grow more than 20% this year.

    Delivering results for the three months to June 30, the $12.8-billion Santiago-based company posted a $247.7-million revenue, which represents a 21.2% jump when compared to the same period of 2017.

    Total revenue from SQM's five businesses increased by 13% to $1.15 billion, from $1.02 billion in the corresponding months last year, thanks mainly to the company’s lithium unit.

    Price commentary unlikely to deter a very bearish sentiment on lithium-heavy names, say analysts.
    Despite expecting softer prices in the months to come, the company said they will remain higher than the average reached last year.

    Sector analysts, including BMO’s Joel Jackson, agreed SQM’s lithium price commentary was unlikely to deter a very bearish sentiment on lithium-heavy names.

    The company, in fact, expects lithium sales volumes to be almost 50% higher in the second half of the year, compared to the first half, bringing total sales volumes to over 50k tonnes during 2018.

    To meet company expectation, however, at least 60% of volume needs to come in second half versus a normal skew of 52-54, BMO’s Jackson said in a note to investors.

    While sales for the key ingredient in electric vehicle batteries were down 3% in the second quarter compared to last year, SQM achieved higher average prices in the second quarter — $16,568 per tonne. The figure represents a 26% increase over the $16,400 per tonne obtained in the first quarter of 2018.

    Aggressive expansion plans
    Chile, which holds the largest known lithium reserves in the world (about 52%), recently lost its top lithium producer crown to Australia. But SQM is working hard on reversing that.

    Over the past several months, the world’s number two lithium producer has been expanding its mines. The company recently finished the first stage of a lithium carbonate ramp-up in Chile’s Salar del Carmen, reaching a capacity of 70k million tonnes a year.

    “Our next step will be to work towards our goal of 120k MT/year, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2019,” chief executive officer Patricio de Solminihac said in the statement.

    The firm actually believes it will soon overtake US-based competitor Albemarle as the world's top lithium miner, by 2022 to be exact. SQM expects to boost its production capacity that year to 28% of the world's total versus Albemarle's 16%.

    By 2035, Chile could have an industry of about $10 billion, made up of a combination of carbonate and lithium hydroxide output as well as value-added products, such as cathodes, according to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco).

    SQM boss also reaffirmed the firm’s commitment to the 40,000 tonnes per year Mt Holland project in Australia, which he called “a key asset” in the producer’s portfolio.

    “This is a very large rock deposit with significant exploration upside. We have secured a key industrial site for the future refinery where we expect to produce at least 45k MT of lithium hydroxide per year,” Solminihac said.

    Last week, SQM sold its 50%-share in an Argentinian brine joint venture, leaving the company with a single project outside its core Chilean operations.

    Both Chilean authorities and analysts believe lithium has the potential to become the nation’s second largest mining export, just behind copper. It currently is its fourth biggest export.
  10. Tesla will have a hard time getting patent for low cost Solid State, they are behind the curve and into too many projects to absolutely dominate the battery research field... Elon probably has some serious guys in that department tho. German's are into it, just speculating here but I believe low cost Solid States will be patented somewhere in Asia, thinking Japan due to massive expertise in that field and patents, these guys dream about batteries. China can pull an unlikely upset given the amount of engineers they produce every year.
    #10     Dec 28, 2018
    vanzandt likes this.