I take issue with Taleb being on this list. I do not dispute that the man is intelligent and pulled tremendous money out of the market during the bubble burst and 9/11 - however - he himself openly recognizes that his goal is CAPITAL PRESERVATION. He buys way out of the money options and scores big during times of crisis. He bases this on his central argument that investors and the market miscalculate the actually likelihood of outlier events. I think it's safe to say that traders on this board (and most anywhere else) are concerned with CONSISTENT INCOME (in the case of prop traders) or CONSISTENT RETURNS. As much as I hate to say it, I think Taleb should be grouped alone - not because of his talent, per se, but because he does not produce consistently positive returns.
lol, I guess thats why Talebs Rule#4 is "Beware of the trader who makes a steady income. Those tend to blow up. Traders with very frequent loses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up" - I still don't know what supporting evidence he used for this, maybe he was only watching option sellers... -Neo
Very good point. Anyone heard of Stanley Kroll? A number of years ago, when I was first reading about different traders/investors, I was reading the Market Wizards books and similar. After reading about some of the old timers and other pros, it amazed me at the time how many of these people make it a point to avoid the public eye. It's like the really big fish that is seldom seen, but occassionally they leave evidence of their existence. gordo
This is a ridiculous assertion on Taleb's part... And shows a limited perspective centered on the options world. The most successful quants do precisely that... Generate a 20-30% return year after year. DE Shaw is a classic example. It's also what I do... but, needless to say, on a smaller scale. rm+
Great point. The super talented big players tend to be highly secretive... And run private, oversubscribed funds that are closed to new money... Unless they like you and want to make money for you. All these strip tease artists like Cramer and Taleb and their ilk... Are skilled promoters... not great money managers. Even Soros with all his books never really told you exactly how he made money... Though systematic market manipulation played a significant role. rm+
I think it's difficult to compare guys running huge funds with scores of analysts and traders doing the work, eg Soros, with a guy who is an actual trigger puller. Not saying one is better than the other, just that it's apples and oranges. That said, I admire a guy who does it solo and with his own money. I'll put Marty Schwartz up against any of these guys in a head to head trading competition.
The best trader I know is Tony Saliba. He is by far the master of options trading. If you would like to know more about him, there is chapter in the first Market Wizards book about him..