Has anyone seen or completed any type of study that looks at statistics of time periods for liquidity cycles. I would argue that most of the economy points to us about 1/4-1/2 way towards the trough approaching recession. About the only factor that has not participated on that path (-YET-) is the stock market's performance. If the liquidity cycle holds weight, at some point the market must weaken before we hit the recession point. I was curious to know what, say, a mean time period (months, years?) would be from peak to trough. BTW for those posters who were talking about how PTJ called 87 top based on comparisons to 30's, I've compiled that chart myself and I would say that we aren't quite there yet, if we only approach it using TA. That's why I think a lot of folks are calling for melt up. They are anticipating the next stage of 87 style top. However, I still think it could also prove to be a false call like capitulation calls in 2003. The two arguments that work best in favor for extending the bull IMHO is 1) Massive liquidity being pumped via repos, M3, and commercial players on long side. 2) Gen Public hasn't been sucke(r)d in yet. Very low participation since 03 drop. They haven't been convinced yet, as money flow and sentiment show. However, the liquidity cycle argument and long term cycles outlook, strongly tugs toward the bear argument.