likelihood after nvda reaching 325$ or beyond Jan 2019

Discussion in 'Options' started by ggelitetrader000, Jan 19, 2018.

  1. I don't care much how many GPUs a miner uses compared to what a gamer uses. For NVIDIA is the mining market 3% and the gamer market 59%. Even if they misjudged the forecast for mining by a factor three that would mean that they had counted on 1% of turnover from mining. A lousy two percent of their turnover in mismatch. They really run such a tight manufacturing that they can't handle such a small forecast mistake? That's why I think mining is used as a scapegoat and the delivery situation will normalise in the coming few months.
     
    #21     Feb 2, 2018
  2. The article makes the usual mistake of observing a correlation and then drawing the conclusion that there is cause and effect at play. The chipmakers are just churning out stuff like there is no tomorrow, all of them are stretched regarding capacity. The equipment makers have 2 year waiting lists for delivery and more and more things have chips built into them. Nary a product doesnt have some Internet of Things or graphic module in it these days. As someone else outlined above ramp-up for chipmakers isnt that easy when you get to full capacity of existing sites. Its a brutal business where you can billions up or down quite easily, there is a shortage - gamers will moan as will other people. The dogs bark but the caravan moves on - really nothing extraordinary here.
     
    #22     Feb 2, 2018
  3. ok nvda is experiencing sharp drop today and also last few days, however not to panic, as I can see last december was experiencing even bigger correction, it is just matter of time, when to end the put insurance that is doing its job now.
    perhaps hold the put for a week or 2-3 weeks and sell it back? I'd rather to make some gain while it will almost certainly eventually climb back to make up for the lost time.

    Not sure what the correction now taking place perhaps it is due to 1. profit taking 2. crypto downfall effect (I know it is irrational in the sense the crpyto is only minor percentage of nvda revenue but again market is irrational) or could be overall market correction.

    Well today, call i am holding is down sharply -3.7k$ (at the recent height the gain was as much as +105% but toda only 30% gain) and put has protected about its 2.7k$ with net downage of about -1k. Could have been much worse if it was naked.
     
    #23     Feb 5, 2018
  4. Sig

    Sig

    Just another public service announcement on what all those mysterious financial terms mean....NVDA's beta is 1.4 Today the S&P 500 went down 3.8%. With a beta of 1.4, you would expect NVDA to fall by 1.4*3.8=5.4% It actually fell 8.5%, so about 3% of the fall was due to idiosyncratic reasons related to the stock itself, the rest was simply what you would expect based on it's beta and today's market movement.
     
    #24     Feb 5, 2018
  5. Today NVDA dropped more than the industry sector (e.g. SMH, SOXX). However, if you look to the last month of trading it performs in line with the semiconductor industry. The light blue line is NVDA, the other two lines are SOXX and SMH.
    yahoo.png
     
    #25     Feb 5, 2018
  6. with such a fast ascent to a sky i think there are sudden sharp drops are expected. I'd agree it aint for faint hearted.
     
    #26     Feb 8, 2018
  7. it recovered soem of the gains lost during last few days, few minutes after earning, it was down ~-%5, ok i thought it should be about few weeks to go back up, well i was wrong, it was back up +11% then +7% later day before the next opening bell.
     
    #27     Feb 9, 2018
  8. away from this for some time, last quarter's number released and some of the areas of NVDA appears to have stagnated i.e. gaming and professional visualition. I would not be very much surprised about its professional visualization. However gaming stagnation was surprise. I am not sure this number includes crypto sale. I also heard somewhere recently, last was the first quarter the nvidia first ever released crypto segment as a separate number but did not see it from this report:
    http://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/file...ports/2019/Q1-FY19-Rev_by_Mkt_Qtrly_Trend.pdf

    OEM & IP segment has jumped huge I wonder what it includes?
     
    #28     May 28, 2018
  9. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    $165 on a horrible report. They cited "weakness in cryptos".
    Right.
     
  10. it is pummeled, i have 4 calls and 2 puts as a straddle, sold 2 of my puts after it has gone down enough so should have waited until today. So it is 2x1 skewed, bracing for tomorrow.