... like a Hershey for Dummies? Yes - but not quite

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by eto, Dec 7, 2009.

  1. eto


    Does anyone know of a link where “Hershey” is explained in plain English ? While I can recognize the wisdom in his posts, to me the basics and how they work together remain obtuse – whether I try to take it from detail to big picture or from big picture to detail. Most ‘explanations’ and threads from other key proponents also seem to come from the same aspect that Hershey has so, to me, are also not clear.


  2. . . . you no understand ?
  3. You mean like L. Ron Hubbard:D
  4. To quell your uncertainty, I post under the handle jack hershey. And if you see words under my name, then do make the effort to conclude I made the post.

    If you think someone else modified it and I didn't post it, simply ask and put my last name in the question. That way when I search under hershey as a word, I will see your question and uncertainty.

    Sometimes I do review portions of days. When I do, I think back about my positions and my activities concerning a general thing "knowing that I know". There is an aspect of trading for over 50 years and spending time narrating the market just ahead of what is going to happen, that, over time, affects the way a person views the market and the nice warm feeling of being able to continualy call the market.

    If by chance you have not been there to experience it, or, if by chance, this kind of calling the market just ahead of the market is not part of your capability, then you may be on shakey ground when it comes to diagnosing my mind.

    Others who know me may be reading what you wrote; they ae having a pleasant moment as a consequence which we all thank you for.

    You see this as a manafestation of a degenerative disease. From my viewpoint, you may wish to reconsider your view.

    This thread is hershey for dummies. we both have come to the right place for specific reasons. I am going to post "Hershey for Dummies" and you get to further diagnose my mental condition.

    First you get to read my notes from yesterday on PVT.
  5. Here is "PVT for Dummies"

    See attached. This yellow page was done yesterday as we completed our batting order for this week.
  6. Here is the batting order (BO) for the week. There are four streams of capital (A, B C and D). The batters are stock symbols.

    Hold is the duration of the trade to make at least 10%. Buy is the morning to buy. Sell is the morning to sell.
  7. Let me expand the two illustrations since they are not on a PVT for Dummies level. They are in shorthand.

    part 1 tools is the mental equipment a person has acquired by doing "drills". There are five tools:

    1. sorting. Sorting gives the Universe.
    These symbols are put on a spread sheet that has some columns. I will post the current spread sheet if TT requests it.

    2. The IAS (Initial Analysis Sheet) is completed for any symbol added to the Universe. It has the info for the columns of the Universe Excel sheet.

    3. The timing column of the Universe is filled in for the next trade for a symbol. Then the Universe is sorted to have a chronological list orientation.

    4. From this a batting order for the Week is determined and written out by everyone in the meeting.

    5. During the week, daily, a DAS (Daily Analysis Sheet) is filled out. It answers three questions:

    a. Where is stock in cycle? (see Universe, BO and DAS)

    b. What is next? (consult your long term memory created from drills)

    c. How fast is it changing? (BO and DAS)

    That completes the Tooling for dummies. Pick up the sheets mentioned and if TT wants the current Universe on excel with all the work done for him (as a dummy) he can request it.

    All of the above is referred to as "Tomorrow's Newspaper Today". This means a person doing PVT know ahead of time when he is going to trade what.

    Part 2 is trading efficiently usine your mental equipment of part 1. We know how to trade.

    a. Buy using the "unusual Volume chart". (FRV column)

    b. After V hits DU in the am, you have 1 1/2 hours to buy before price lifts off. So look at chart volume on 30 minute chart.

    c. Monitor batting order stocks.

    1. Keep up with what is unfolding for each stock.

    2. Pay attention to stocks getting ripe to buy or sell.

    d. Always have cash for opportunities. This means to sell promptly and have money for next batter when batter is ripe to enter.

    So to get all the sheets and see how it actually works you have to print in color two documents. They are long and they have videos for slow readers and people who do not think much. "Building Minds for building Wealth" and "Putting the pieces Together". Dummies have two problems with these: they do not know how to search and they can't print and put the doicuments into three ring binders. The business plan outline in Appendix B is also a challenge because it has over ten parts.

    the caluculation at the bottom of the sheet shows the volume of bar 1 of the day if a stock is in DU (this tells you to wait) or if it is in FRV (the buy column value). Calculators were actually used by people in the room to do this task. They are way past dummy level, however and know where they keep their calculators in their briefcases.
  8. Here is an example of last week's batter 1 on stream A: GWR. The buy was Monday open the hold was until wdenesday AM. Look at bar 2 (30 min) on Wednesday am. This is a 10% type trade.

    As you saw on the left side of the sheet, the rate of cycles is noted for each stream. 100, 70, 60 and 60. That is the number of anual cycles that will be compounded at 10% nominal.

    Dummies trading PVT only make that amount on their initial capital per year. Most PVT traders also turn to SCT trading. they do have to do PVT trading with surplus SCT profits.

    Next I will dumb down SCT trading.
  9. SCT trading takes two screens.

    Most people who need trading "SCT for Dummies" have never seen the markets. This makes it difficult for them to read my posts in the context of a person who actually sees the market in real time.

    To get to "SCT for Dummies" you need to have a display. A specific SCT for Dummies display.

    This means no one is going to be able to follow this discussion, so I will keep it very brief.

    The tools for SCT are few and simple for part 1.

    a. We do not sort. We just use a 5 minute ES chart for price and volume. Several scripts are attached to the chart and they are known as "library items" A person has to have the library items to attach to the charts.

    Dummies do not do this either. Dummies do not have a display; dummies do not have the scripts attached.

    b. The initial analysis of the ES consists of learning the cases of adjacent bars. There are 9 and it takes 30 seconds to list them in your mind. Arrange the nine names on a sheet of paper and draw the nine pairs that correspond to the names. Use a whole sheet, be generous.

    c. There is a Universe for SCT. It is the pattern: B2B 2R 2B or
    R2R 2B 2R. This is determined deductively to be the only pattern possible. Think of your high school geometry course and go through this deduction. Dummies can't do this anymore; their minds have become unusable for critical thinking. All persons have to own the consequences of their thinking. Do that for the moment and stop reading this thread.

    d. The batting order is provided by the elements of the Universal pattern. That is easy. But we also saw that people have drawbacks in regard to how their minds no longer function. A persopn cannot go back to his geometry teacher and say: "Shit, you were right I should have learned how to think deductively in geometry but now I am a PhD quant and I only can do induction by piling up more and more data to get Black Swan materials. Your geometry teacher would have replied: "I read that cute article in the New Yorker by Gladwell, Taleb really sucked him in logically speaking. SCT traders do the batting order on three fractals which are nested by the properties of the pattern.

    e. This has as no changes from PVT. The three questions always apply. SCT is traded bilaterally so you are always in the market on the right side of the market using the three questions. The cycle is the pattern. What we used in PVT is the DAS; in SCT it is a log of 12 columns. It does the same thing as the DAS by using MADA to log.

    Part 2 is the trading.

    a. All buying (actually reversing since its bilateral) is done using volume as in PVT. The pattern has four volume P's and T's. Since there are three legs (moves) in the pattern, you can trade them all or just do a turn per complete pattern.

    b. you begin hold at B of B2B and you end hold at second B of B2B. This is a peak to peak hold on volume. To trade 2R you reverse on peak and reverse on trough. To trade the last leg you reverse on the peak which brings you to the next pattern R2R 2B 2R where you do the above.

    c. Monitor the chart and its movement through the pattern. Most of the time you do not have peaks or troughs and that being the case you hold while logging. All rows of logging tell you to do one of two things. One thing is to hold while the leg continues. Legs continue under translation. If translation is not occurring, log how the cases are leading to translation and hold as this progress continues. All reversals happen on an FTT on an appropriate fractal. For experts, they see 20 to 40 FTT's a day. If a person is a learner, then he trades less times a day because he has a plan to just trade ftt's on slower fractals. As dummies cannot understand any of this, they usually go away quietly. TT has explained that he can't understand this "SCT for dummies". He is also a neurologist and he can easily determine that it is my fault he cannot understand what I have transferred to others for four generations. I am very lucky; he goes away.

    d. You always have additional cash at the end of each leg (price move you traded) it is applied at a rate of 100% to increase the contracts you trade. Occasionally, you dwell at a given level of contracts and shovel excesses over to your growing PVT streams. It is a conditioning experience; dwelling lets you get used to the atmosphere of money accumulating at the new rate per tick. Just keep logging and breathing deeply if you need to. After a while you adjust and accept the new money velocity of profits.

    This was a parallel development among PVT and SCT on the dummies level.

    Does a dummy have to prove the pattern is the only one possible? No he doesn't. But he has to go through differentiating his mind to be able to have his mind summon up what he needs to fill in the log and do MADA.

    No one can fill in the cases for adjacent bars. If they could they would also see the two mutually exclusive sub sets. Most dummies can't think much at all. What they do think up is set ups that give them edges that they can't statistcally analyze anyway. LOL.... If you want to read a doosey, read TZ announcement of his 250,000 system. I keep it in a small pine box here.

    We know dummies have to have it handed to them. Today I gave them all the trades for the week in stocks. Today, they got the pattern and can see it ALL the time on the 5 min ES. Finding the two FTT's on a pattern is not too hard to do. Having one at each end is a real gift. We saw Covel get the gift and call it gibberish. We see TT do his neurologist stint. Now we get to see dummies complaining.
  10. Attached please find the batting order for the prior week, Also note, from that list that I misquoted. Please replace GWR above with GRS.
    #10     Dec 7, 2009