Lightning Round-name Your Swing Trade

Discussion in 'Journals' started by eagle488, Nov 23, 2006.

  1. stampdet


    If you like Caterpillar, but want a bigger pop, I would suggest A.S.V., Inc. (ASVI). They make many of the track systems for CAT and it appears that where CAT goes, ASVI goes first and bigger.

    It might turn your 30% into 50% and sooner than the CAT move?

    If nothing else, it might add an additional indicator to when CAT moves.
    #11     Nov 23, 2006
  2. I love this company's balance sheet and financials. However, when it did drop this year it failed to stop at the 200 week moving average suggesting some trouble.

    I have this feeling that the 200 week moving average will be the new ceiling. It would have been a more attractive buy for myself at 13-14, then right now at 15. I imagine if its able to get through the 200 week moving average ceiling, then the 50 week moving average will be the next ceiling. The 50/200 do seem to be converging on each other which is a questionable sign.

    The good thing is that the float is small and that there has been a lot of hammering down on the stock this year. I should expect that more people will sell by the end of December for tax loss reasons and hammer it down to bargain territory.

    I would only trade this as a short term swing. If growth is questionable for 2007, then surely the trend will continue that way for 2008-2009 time period.

    #12     Nov 24, 2006

    It appears the company is being bid up on light volume right before the Credit Suisse conference. I saw this same thing happen with SFLY.

    SFLY was bid up right up to the conference and then SFLY's CEO had made a very bad presentation. Actually, his manner of presentation was very convincing, however, the subject matter he used was not. He was stating that Shutterfly would be the older generation's Myspace. I have a Shutterfly account and its nice to store photos on the site for free. However, Shutterfly is no Myspace. He turned many investors off. Shortly afterwards, the stock fell.

    My prediction is that Acme will probably get to 19-20 dollar price area. Walked up on light volume. If the conference presentation is good, then it will consolidate and go higher. If its bad, then the stock will get cut back and quite a bit.

    #13     Nov 24, 2006

    I have reviewed the charts and fundamentals for this company. I have concluded that its horrible. However, the key is that as of October 10th there existed over 7 million short shares. Recently, CIBC had upgraded the stock to "Sector perform" and the result was a little upside.

    The key to this company is the record of short interest and the chart:

    Oct. 13, 2006 7,701,463
    Sep. 15, 2006 7,838,265
    Aug. 15, 2006 7,867,755
    Jul. 14, 2006 7,773,748
    Jun. 15, 2006 7,957,133
    May 15, 2006 7,206,132
    Apr. 13, 2006 9,910,389
    Mar. 15, 2006 7,831,043
    Feb. 15, 2006 7,453,505
    Jan. 13, 2006 6,466,803
    Dec. 15, 2005 6,654,643
    Nov. 15, 2005 6,646,088

    It appears to me that a lot of people have channel traded this company between 7-12 for the last 2 years. They would buy in around 7 and then short at 12. At some point would be a big short covering rally and I had noted where the stock had jumped from 9.88 to 12 in very short time.

    However, on its recent downtrend, the conference call was especially bad. Instead of rebounding back up to 12, the down trend continued down to the 6s.

    On Friday, someone stepped in and bought a lot of Dec 7.50 and Dec 10 calls which are currently out of the money. The usual call option activity for 1 month is 288, but this was 1178 IN ONE DAY. There was more call volume activity in ONE DAY. 4 months of call activity in OUT OF THE MONEY CALLS in one day.

    I dont think the company will get bought out. However, I do believe that a short covering rally is about to occur. The call volume suggests that many others feel the same way as I do. However, instead of buying the common stock, they bought the calls just in case this does not come true. Like I said, the company is horrible and the last conference call was especially bad. The calls could have been purchased by the shorts as well to protect their position.

    If a short covering rally does occur, then this will create a V-bottom. Covering 7 million shares in a stock that trades 650k in a day and with a 42 million float will be insane.

    I may do either of two things, buy the DEC 7.50 calls at 20 cents or monitor the stock intraday for volume and price. If I see sudden volume, then the short covering rally will be at hand. It wont just shoot up, but will be a continual uptrend all day long. 7 million shorts trying to squeeze where 650k is usually traded.

    At the current price levels, even a .5 bump would equal about a 7% gain which is not unimaginable even if you got in late on the short covering rally. Better then a money market fund.
    #14     Nov 25, 2006
  5. stampdet


    I'm looking at :




    Both are beaten down companies with good earnings records and a history of quickly fixing whatever problems force the stock price down.

    Hoping for 10% in 30 days.
    #15     Dec 7, 2006
  6. stampdet


    Bargains in beaten sectors -

    Construction/Home Improvement:


    #16     Dec 13, 2006
  7. Rimm going to 140
    ebay going 35-39
    gnw going to 35-37
    #17     Dec 13, 2006
  8. stampdet


    This thread is packed full of winners, but it doesn't seem like anybody cares. All stochastics and annotated charts sim traders here? :confused:
    #18     Dec 14, 2006
  9. Not me, I own my recommendations.
    #19     Dec 14, 2006
  10. Here are three more solid swing trades.

    ceph nice swing trade up to 75.00 min
    erts good to at least 55.00
    and believe it or not
    F good for a quick .40 to .50 cents.

    of the three I like ceph the best and will buy some tomorrow.
    #20     Dec 15, 2006