Day 3 (12 August) It looked to be breaking down against 106.25, so I went short at 105.22, stop 105.68, target 104.30 (back to the old lows of last week). This was a very bad call and I got taken out for a $920 loss
Day 4 (13 August) 1 winner, 1 loser today. Initially, I was bullish, intending to buy dips. I did so (see JPEG), getting long at 106.47 with a stop at 106.17 looking for a retest of the highs at 107.07. The market stalled at 106.60 and I got stopped for a $560 loss (got filled at 106.19 not sure how)
When the market made a lower high around 106.70, then took out the previous low around 106.00, it was now making lower highs and lower lows. So the trend has changed and I want to be shorting rallies. I shorted 106.05 (close to the previous low ie support-turned resistance). Stop at 106.25 (swing high) and targeting 105.65 (the days low so far). Target was met for $800 profit, putting me back in green for the day. I spent the next few hours trying to short another rally but the market was relentlessly bid all evening all the way back to $107.00 so I avoided standing in front of the freight train.
1) When you're "right", you really seem to profit "well". When you're "wrong", you may be losing too much per losing trade. 2) If you lose more than $400 on a losing trade, you're likely to get very close to the daily loss limit on a second consecutive losing trade. 3) The week of June 24 to June 27, theoretically, you would have hit the weekly loss limit of $1000, same as the daily limit, if you were funded. :eek: 4) You appear to be able to trade profitably. The combine rules make the task tougher. If you can tighten down the protective stops, all the better.
1. you're right about this, I think I need to reduce size or trade something less volatile 2. this happens a lot of times, I'm ok with this, I tend not to do more than 2 trades per day 3. yes again, need to trade less size 4. I'm working on trading a shorter time frame to make the stops tighter
14 August Trade 1 The market was acting as if the London session support around 106.30 (an important pivot the last few days) had become resistance so I went short at 106.09 stop 106.34 targeting 105.59. It snapped back for a loss of $480 (I got filled at 106.33).
Trade 2 Short at 106.26 stop 106.51 target 105.76, it then did this (see cicled on attached chart). Stopped out for a 25 tick loss of $500.
Good Luck Liffy. Looks like you wait it out for your best setup per day. One shot and done. Your avg loss #, while still lower than avg win, reads somewhat high. If you are going to be shooting at 50%, which is fine, then the payoff ratio should not be close to "1". to date your w/l size ratio is 835/727=1.148. Get that ratio higher if possible while not changing your strat mid-combine. That number is showing the relationship of your reward to the level of risk you are taking. And trading is about keeping that risk low, and even more so with these combine rules. Improving average loss #, only for certain strats I use average bars per trade, i.e. if the average bars of losing trades is 9 bars or 21 bars or whatever, this is good info to access if a trade is going nowhere. An n-bar exit can lead to curve-fitting. Keep rolling.