Liar, Liar, pants on fire!

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by nutmeg, Dec 29, 2011.

  1. Researchers have found there is a specific language of lying that people use that you can tell by listening to an earnings conference call — or just reading the transcript.

    Researchers at Stanford University analyzed 30,000 earnings call transcripts and found language patterns were often better predictors of negative earnings surprises than traditional accounting methods!

    When being deceptive on an earnings call, the person typically uses a lot of what they call “qualifying language,” things like — “Well, to the best of my knowledge,” “As far as I know” or “Everyone agrees…” Or they use distancing language — not “I” or “we” but “The company” and “the team.”

    Again, it’s not just a one-off reference — it’s four or five clusters of these deceptive indicators. Another indicator is when the person uses inflated language consistently. It was a “great” quarter not a “good” one, or it was an “incredible” quarter not just a “solid” one.

    The Stanford researchers analyzed that famous Lehman Brothers earnings call from 2008 just months before the firm’s spectacular collapse.

    Then-CFO Erin Callan used the word “strong” 24 times, “great” 14 times, “challenging” six times, “incredibly” eight times and “tough” just one time.

    No one is saying Callan lied but what researchers suggest is the "strong" language that preceded the firm's collapse was a better indicator of what was to come than the firm's actual accounting. So it never hurts to listen to the language.

    “These calls are supposed to be predictive — you need to learn how to sift through them and understand the language,” Meyer explained. “There is a science to deception.”

    cont on link..
  2. Interesting.

    Let's use speech recognition and develop HFT bots that buy/sell on each word uttered during a conference.
  3. Might be better than doing shots...:D
  4. ammo


    they have news bots already,probably working on your suggestion
  5. Also, a good tip for catching someone lying is that they don't use contractions.

    Telling truth. I didn't have sex with that woman.

    Lying. I Did Not have sex with that woman.
  6. Well we all probably have our pet adjectives for sorting the wheat and the chaff, Mine was the "weather". When the cc starts talking about the weather and poor performance I get excited.

    I had to laugh when Obama blamed the weather for our economic woes, the guy doesn't miss a trick.Then his lame ass analogy of "sailing" a ship.
  7. Wow, where did you get that one ??!!
    If I recall, Clinton did put the emphasis on NOT.

    As smart as he was, I am amazed he didn't know this trick or wasn't made aware of it by his trusted advisors.
  8. In the book "Blink" this was mentioned. Gladwell the author, developed facial recogntion tells. The first time he heard Clinton speak, Gladwell saw all worrisome signs {of deceit?} in Clintons mannerisms, speech, etc. He offered to "coach" Clinton ( I suppose to improve his appearance) Clinton politely declined.
  9. Wow, what a story....thanks for that nutmeg.
    "And the rest is history" as they say.
    #10     Dec 30, 2011