Of course you don't know since you are not the ONE. If you are the ONE, then you realize that that its not the market that moves, but that its you that moves. Only 10% of us can hope to be the ONE, for the rest of you, you must be content to stay in the matrix.
okay. so we dont know if the level will hold, how can i confirm that the level held and its safe to enter then?
Levels, support/resistance or whatever you want to call it are not trade signals all by themselves. Thus, you should be using a confirmation signal (sometimes called trade signal) at those levels. Thus, if/when a level is reached and your trade signal doesn't appear...there's no valid trade. Just the same, if your trade signal doesn't appear at a level...there's no valid trade. Simply, you need a level and trade signal to appear together to validate a trade...it's as simple as that. By the way, if you look closely on the net...there are dozens of different types of levels or support/resistance being used. In fact, there was a thread here at ET where traders talked about what levels they were using for the Emini ES and most in the thread had different levels for each trading day. Therefore, the real question now for you is what trade signals to use. ET has a thread that traders discuss their trade signals in depth @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=33 Yep, you can also use another alternative like "market depth" to help confirm trade decision if/when the price action reaches whatever levels you're watching. Now you realize the problem...you need to find the right trade signal that works well with whatever levels you're using. Reminder - Levels, support/resistance or whatever you want to call it are not trade signals all by themselves. Mark
understood. I was saying the same thing to be honest. how do yuu confirm the level held.. volume is a joke now with order packing and stuff by the HFT and the orderbook is unreadible these days
As mentioned in my prior reply, you can use any available trade signal that's been discussed here at Elitetrader.com to confirm that a level "may be holding". However, there's NO GUARANTEE if that's what you're really asking about. Mark
onava, Also, don't forget that there are other important things than just a trade signal to confirm that a level "may hold". Another piece of the puzzle that's arguably just as important is your "market experience" to help you to recognize that a level "may hold". Simply, you're going to need more screen time (a lot of it) to help you with your trade signals to confirm that a a level "may hold". Those 3 components together can take years to develop assuming you have the right combo working together. * Market Experience * Trade Signals * Levels (e.g. support/resistance) Mark
Screw levels. Levels get broken through all the time. Trying to trade levels is trying to predict the future. Good luck. Instead, learn to trade the trend. If the price is going up, you want to own it. If the price is falling, you want to sell it, and maybe short-sell it as well. So your best bet is to learn how to detect trends: when they start, when they're ascendant, and when they are ending. That's what most indicators are about: trend detection, and they aren't all equally good (or equally bad) at it.