Let's Trade III, by Sicktrader

Look, everything that I have learned is from live betting. Once I figured things out, I didn’t care who was playing who, I just took the home team. Could have instead been the away team, the favorite, the underdog, really didn’t matter as long as I was consistent with it, I just wanted something that hit at about 50%. You can go to covers.com and find that all of the above have hit between 45% and 55% over the past five years. This really isn’t too hard.

 

Ivan, I wish I didn't teach you about the simlies.

 

After commissions, what percent of trades to you need to win to make this method a positive expectancy?

This site is intended for collaboration (entertainment in reality), so regardless of your success or demise, someone will learn something.

But let me point out a few over-shadowed key aspects to this whole journal (or three):

1) This whole effort is based on positive expectancy to begin with. With a 50% win rate AND risk:reward ratio of 1:1.5, you’re supposed to make money. On 20 trades alone (representative of one week), you could theoretically yield $400 trading one contract (after commissions). Whether using extreme or conservative leverage, that’s a great return for one week.

2) The money management approach is not crazy like some have pointed out. In fact, it ensures that a big string of losers doesn’t sink you with big losses. It also plays well with taking on bigger size without it affecting your psych much. If you have to add endless amounts of money to your account, then you didn’t have a positive expectancy after all. The proof is in whether you can hit 50% or not.

For those who like spreadsheet analysis, I created a quick example/model of how Sicktrader’s approach could play out. Play around with the attached to better understand how money flows in and out of your account with this type of approach. Check the second worksheet out if you want to see what 260 trades (65 trading days) can look like – I even built in a max # of CARS that could be traded to keep it from going too crazy.

I have assumed that you will only add enough to keep your account at $700 should you hit a string of losses. Whether you ultimately end up with 2x or 20x result, that’s completely dependent upon when the losses and wins come. That’s luck. So, in effect, you can’t guarantee your results in 65 days (even if it’s trading days). But you can surely guarantee some impressive % returns if you can hit 50% of them and add size.

Good luck regardless.

Keep trading.

JScott

 

First, I have a $5.50 RT, so that is a bit off against my favor. Second, once you all realize that nobody can predict the market, the better off everyone will be. I can't, I just hope to be right 50% of the time. Yes, a gamble, nothing more than guessing heads or tails. Just watch and see how I increase and decrease contracts, it will get me to my goal.

PS: Nice Work

 

The amount of noise in this thread is so overwhelming. Please stop posting as much, assholes.
I'm reserving judgment for now and am requesting a video to be posted. Great calls.

 

You had mentioned something that is important. My 65 days are trading days, Mon-Fri, don't trade on the weekends. Family time.

 

I really think that Magna put me on ignore, he doesn't respond to my PM's anymore. Can someone please ask him about a thread that can be locked where I can post my trades without advice from the village trolls. Thanks.