Let's Take a Test Drive by Pay$ense

Discussion in 'Journals' started by paysense, Dec 9, 2008.

  1. ...the battle rages -

    and I get STOPPED w/ head-fake?

    Loss: $125

    We shall see if is head-fake. . .

    Entered 1ES @ 868.75
    STOP 870.25

    Target: 854.50
     
    #81     Dec 15, 2008
  2. STOPPED

    Loss: $75

    Total Loss: $275

    On a possible reward of $2,250.

    I do not have all the tools most day-traders have, but I am thinking this thing could have gone either way.

    Now we can expect that this low-volume action will reverse at 874 to eventually reach the 854.50 UT.

    paysense

    PS Experience did not lend itself to chiding me into thinking this is my style of trading!
     
    #82     Dec 15, 2008
  3. Remember it did break the first hour low, yet is now trading above it and we are still in the breakdown zone.

    We shall see if trend reverses. I am not absolutely sure, but I think most days will close down if they break that first hour low.

    pay$
     
    #83     Dec 15, 2008
  4. This effort has left me spent for the day. But I reserve the right to jump in at any time. I toggled over to my other account that is doing fine. I STO 2NQ at 1188 w/ a 5 point stop. This actually (temporarily) increased my bearish exposure on my longer-term positions.

    They are now shift back to a slight bullish bias. It is nice to see that the market is not totally falling apart and that some buyers have entered in. But I won't go more bullish until we can further take out overhead support.

    Three out of five covered call positions I opened this last week were profitable and they are all now closed.

    Most of you like this volatility and it makes me work harder.

    I keep telling myself that at least 2008 has been quite an up year when just not losing is huge. Maybe food will help. C-ya

    :mad:
     
    #84     Dec 15, 2008
  5. I probably should have posted this sooner.

    Food did help and this So Cal weather has turned East Coast!

    I think I will scan to add another covered call trade.p$
     
    #85     Dec 15, 2008
  6. It is SO hard to gauge this market with the Fed meeting and options expiring on Friday.

    Now the ES is at the armpit of a head-and-shoulders pattern. IF we get a bounce up to form a right shoulder (reverses lower and does not make a new high) perhaps with traders coming back from lunch we will see the aforementioned tank into the close to the 854 level.

    I did find an excellent CC play with AKS. I will wait however and see how late-trade plays out, since better pricing is possible.

    pay$

    Edit: gonna miss this ES play - have a meeting to go to. Let me know how it goes.
     
    #86     Dec 15, 2008
  7. Well what I missed by going to a meeting, leaves me no worse for wear.

    What intra-day bias do you have? it seems we never formed a shoulder and in fact - immediately moved sharply lower (a bit) only to head-fake right back up.

    Now we can see that the overall daily trend is downward with rather large swings up and down.

    With the last 1.5 hours to go, I don't think anyone knows where we will end up. If we went lower - it'd be a better entry for AKS covered call trade. But since these are in fact a bit <i>hedged</i> by the short option - I think I will just go for it...soon.

    Volume is glaringly absent to day and well, Caroline Kennedy if vying for Hillary's senate seat, FWIW (lol).
     
    #87     Dec 15, 2008
  8. I imagine the market's action today is entirely counter-intuitive to a lot of "fade" traders.

    With (small) losses already - I should probably stay on the side-lines.

    But I'll try a different tactic:

    <b>B</b>TO 2 ES @ 860
    STOP: 1 point
    Profit target: ?
     
    #88     Dec 15, 2008
  9. Didn't get hardly any bounce,

    Loss: $100

    so reversed SHORT

    Target 854 (remember this, we are almost there!)
     
    #89     Dec 15, 2008
  10. Still a 1 point STOP - now is NOT when we want a good bounce!!!

    We shall see. . .
     
    #90     Dec 15, 2008