Let's Take a Test Drive by Pay$ense

Discussion in 'Journals' started by paysense, Dec 9, 2008.

  1. Covered calls anyone? Yeah you IRA investors. I said I manage a total of (6) trading systems and cannot let you not know what I will be trading in them.

    This year my low risk approach is up 25%. It does not profit from downtrends, however the phrase "cash is king" has applied.

    Take a look at the performance graph and see that most of the year traded FLAT (fully into cash).

    Recently, I have "dipped" into (2) positions. Perhaps I can post a third today. These will produce about 10% per month - if we are in an uptrend.

    I do not want to hold growth stocks through corrections and stop them out with a decline. You may have experienced a stock that has fallen into the abyss never to return (dead money)?

    So I'll look at a few (STP, YGE, EXM, MNTA) and pick one. Solar stocks are again showing strength today (YGE).p$
     
    #21     Dec 10, 2008
  2. Hello WILD Bill. I'm glad you have taken a peek at the thread.

    I didn't notice you bearish call yesterday, otherwise I may have had a much better time of it!p$

    :confused:
     
    #22     Dec 10, 2008
  3. 1:25 pm EST

    Thus far here is today's take:

    Ho-hum. Not willing to trade any of this precarious low volume chop. At any point in time it can go any way (based on my pure PA analysis, infantile I admit).

    Traders are back from lunch and more ho-hum. Where is the conviction, man! Just taking cues from how the big money flows.

    Let's see what happens going into the close (if we don't get a hedge fund redemption dump before that!)

    pay$
     
    #23     Dec 10, 2008
  4. I take that back. Head-and-Shoulders pattern:

    STO 3EMD @ 511.8
    STOP 512.8

    Profit target: ?

    Also

    STO 2NQ @ 1218.75
    STOP 1225.75

    Profit target?
     
    #24     Dec 10, 2008
  5. BTO 2EMD @ 513.40
    STOP 511.40

    Profit target: ?

    This was 3rd trade and was STOPPED.

    Told you I suck at day-trading.

    Anyway, analysis - (see above regarding not wanting to trade this day, yet LOL)

    Now what?

    Well, indexes although pulling lower (looking a LOT like yesterday's action) have not yet traded through the ES, YM or NQ BD (break down) levels.

    We shall see.

    Psychology: I wanna recoup the $840 loss. . .but actually need to re-evaluate what this weakness means for my "swing" (still open) positions.

    :mad:
     
    #25     Dec 10, 2008
  6. In lower-margin account LONG 1TFS is was hedged with SHORT 2NQ and I had closed 1NQ earlier at a higher level :eek:.

    I added it back at the lower level.

    Hedged well enough for the plummet!

    I had previously closed LONG 2NQ in higher-margin account and replaced it with 1YM LONG.

    With the market tanking. . .STO 1NQ to have somewhat hedged!

    pay$

    These accounts are fine - I just do not like to give back playing with a day-trade.

    Anyway, we'll see if the market can retain it's bullish bias and perhaps add the CC (covered call) position (trade) as we watch things into the close.

    Hmmmphh!!!
     
    #26     Dec 10, 2008
  7. Just to clarify above haphazard trades. . .

    Closed SHORT 2NQ trade for $70 profit.
    Closed (1) SHORT 3EMD trades for $300 total loss
    Closed (1) SHORT 3EMD trades for $210 total loss
    Closed LONG 2EMD trade for $400 loss.

    $860 total loss

    With first 3EMD trade (at the time) the loss was minimal. When I tried to change the STOP to market it had already been filled.

    Then while typing this I entered and closed a second SHORT 3EMD trade.

    I thought I entered my SHORT trade(s) too late, when the market didn't move quick enough in my direction. Translation: "See ya later!"

    I closed the second 3EMD trade out (which at the time had a small loss) using a market order. Translation: "oops, market moved and loss jumped to $210.

    So I tried LONG 2EMD with 2 point STOP.

    :eek:

    Edit: Market is now moving in my direction.

    STOPPED! (then proceeded to move sharply lower).

    Like I said I do not use all the tools most of you use and so keep these day-trade gains and losses relatively small (I know I shouldn't be playing around as small losses do add up).

    BTW: It did turn out to be a good trade - had I held for the minor uptick! The market did drop very nicely right after that. Oh well.

    Summary:
    The first two I said - I'm outa here (didn't move quick enuf) - but got dinged using a market order. Then I reversed and it hit my stop (reaction trade in an already known flippant day).

    Minor move in my $75k account. <b>Have to stay on point, though: capture the major "swing" or MACRO trend from the indexes.</b>p$
     
    #27     Dec 10, 2008
  8. Despite the drops (which was the case early, yesterday) the indexes have yet to cross over into BD (break-down) zone.

    "We shall see".

    pay$
     
    #28     Dec 10, 2008
  9. Further analysis of trades:

    $860 loss could have been just $230 ($300 STOPPED loss and $70 gain) or even VERY profitable had I set my STOP more accurately and went with my conviction of the head-and-shoulder pattern.

    Once it broke lower - 6 points on 3 contracts is $1,800. So r/r was correct.

    Extra (2) trades made things even worse. Lesson: live and learn.

    Better yet, had no losses had I heeded that this was not a good day for this!

    As we speak the market is still undecided with one hour left until the close.p$

    With the bounce I added 1NQ SHORT to now hedge w/2NQ, the LONG 1ES contract in the higher-margin account.

    Translation: This market is going to <i>have</i> to prove itself to me!

    FYI: buying looks to have perked up once the SPX bounced off the low: pulled off SHORT 1NQ in higher-margin account. Looking to do the same in lower-margin account with a small retracement.

    Translation: I didn't get it and indexes keep moving up so did it (closed) anyway;)

    Do we now have the right exposure? Do I dare add another CC trade? Hey, there is no gain without risk!

    Translation: either way I will be fine, since gains are much larger than losses - which I (try to) keep tight.


    :cool:
     
    #29     Dec 10, 2008
  10. Here is a covered call trade.

    Wednesday, December 10, 2008
    3:25 pm EST

    Bought 500 shares of YGE (Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd.) at $5.00 (ask).

    Sold (5) YGE Dec 5 (YGELA) call option contracts at $0.50 (bid).

    Stop Loss: $4.50

    Usually when these don't get stopped market uptrend has legs.
     
    #30     Dec 10, 2008