How are your C2 systems doing lately Gil? Have any risen, Phoenix-like, from the ashes of maximal drawdown?
Glad you should asked Kevin. I started (6) C2 futures systems in 2008 around this time. All but one ended the year with gains - ($1,375) loss on $15,000 $15,000 gain on $20,000 $15 gain on $35,000 $15,890 gain on $35,000 $23,750 gain on $50,000 $26,439 gain on $35,000 (see graphic) Also, on 30-Sep-2008 I started (2) ETF systems - $7,875 gain on $25,000 $11,296 gain on $25,000 thus far... Covered Call Funds - After a 34.17% gain in 2006, a 11.56% gain in 2007 I ended 2008 with a 27.86% return. Oddly, when I started my "swing" (trend-following) systems - I figured a prolonged volatile directionless market would be a worst-case scenario to not allow for these to really work. I figured this period would not be endured for TOO long. I guess we can now thank our elected officials for all of our grief!
As most know by now the latest rally attempt has once again failed - as institutional selling and market uncertainties abound. Moving aside to cash during "corrections" continue to be the best plan (although I do go SHORT with "swing" futures trades - albeit on a lighter scale). Are we sitting up for another precipitous drop? Time will tell - but the Obama administration has not given this market much confidence, to date. I'm thinking a "Bad Bank" plan that <i>somewhat</i> works is what the market really is looking for. ANYTHING to stem the onslaught of dire economic news. Again banks could have failed/merged in August 2007 - but Washington HAD to get their grimy little paws into the mess. . .only to make it worse! pay$ense
Interesting (at least if you are in cash or SHORT) how the Obama administration has inspired NO confidence in the face of a market that FINALLY after 1.5 years is DEMANDING to know what magnitude of BAD ASSETS are on bank balance sheets. The U.S. government should put the banking industry into the hands of Silicon Valley CEO's that at least have strong balance sheets and contained inventories! Now the buzzword is "Stress Test"! Well the market has dropped another 10%, since last week - keeping me SHORT with my "swing" futures plays. In less than ONE YEAR I am up 39k on 35k. Oddly the best is yet to come (once we peg a market bottom). Anyway, only until we see institutional investors starting to put cash back to work, will we see the start of a new BULL MARKET rally. Pay$ense
7% SPX drop in 2 days (severely closing below key levels) and still no panic or massive volume drop.p$ Keep in mind, the lower we go (provided we continue to have a financial system) the greater the gains once we come out of this!
I find this interesting: The NDX jumped 30 points in the first 1.5 hrs of trade then proceeds to dump 50 points. That is A LOT given the current market levels. Now we are at the lows with exactly 1 hr 'til the close Here is the catcher - - volume thus far has fallen way off from last weeks levels. At some point I think we will see some surprise on the part of investors. Meanwhile the market has lost another 4% since my last post!p$
After a 20% drop this last leg - yesterday's 6-7% was a new rally attempt. . .expected by most to fail. But, "we shall see". Gains for the most part were retained today. Looking for either a "confirm" in the upcoming days - through resistance. Or further selling to the lows and perhaps beyond. I only interpret the market (not predict) and react, which is a great way for a trader to retain sanity!
Thursday's big volume gains turned the market from correction to a "confirmed" rally. That signals buyers back into the market, but recommends only cautious buying until the rally proves its intent.
A key on whether rally this will be successful, will be to see if more leading stocks can breakout in heavy volume.p$ Always let the broad market's price and volume action speak loudest <i>as opposed to cheerleading from Obama and Bernanke...though every little bit helps!