Lesson still not learned (well enough): On days trades aren't going your way. . .<b><i>sit out.</i></b>
<b>Monday, December 15, 2008</b> 3:40 pm EST <b>Bought 300 shares of AKS (AK Steel Holding Corporation) at $9.50 (ask). Sold (3) AKS Dec 10 (ASJLB) call option contracts at $0.55 (bid). Stop Loss:</b> $8.95 Meanwhile as the PPT or some major headline hits. . .these still work good. p$
I guess the mostly dead-on target from Joe Baker - although a valiant effort. . .never quite was met. Did you see the rush of volume that came in pushing everything suddenly up?!? Exactly why my main ("swing" LONG) positions are completely hedged and I am sitting here all day watching every move! Good job PPT
With just 2 minutes ahead of the Fed rate cut. . .I have only been nursing my slightly bullish long-term positions. I must of bought and sold the NQ to make incremental gains more than 10 times. Didn't affect account much. If I get an opportunity to get more LONG with a pullback I may. The Es has ben toggling up against resistance and may (or may not) finally break through.More an more uncertainly keeps getting removed from this market, but volatility (vix) is still much to high. pay$
It doesn't look like anyone wants to step into the wrong side of this train.p$ Volume is massive to the upside!
OK - so the market continues to show strength (after that belaboring period of low volume chop) in the form of institutional buying. We have only had (1) distribution day since the market put in a new low. We've had more than a few accumulation days of heavy buying. The indexes have now closed above their 50-day MA's as the bottom is now taking hold. Covered call's and ETF positions continue to be profitable. "Swing" LONG futures positions can be less and less hedged as volatility keeps waning. I will look to close a few more SHORT NQ contracts (hedge) if we temporarily see lower levels. We now look for more strength on up and through resistance along with the emergence of the market's <i>still to unfold</i> leadership.p$
I am now net LONG 1 ES contract in my higher margin account and net LONG 1 NQ in my lower margin account. This market will not go straight up yet, but the bullish accumulation ratings for the indexes has improved dramatically. When/if leading stocks are aligned then we may see some real POWER. That being said, I am looking for weakness to close out SHORT hedges - effectively increasing my LONG exposure to my "swing" accounts. As long as the market doesn't sell off hard in heavy volume (what killed recent previous rally tries) we should be fine. As this volatility is wrung out of the market, and the recession looks to turn the corner all will be well. Anyone notice how GS and MS, that are currently transitioning from investment banks to holding companies, missed estimates by a long-shot? The complete TRUTH has not yet been uncovered as they continue to hope for solvency and a continued improvement in the overall landscape. IOW they picked a good time to throw out a BIG number and relatively escape any great backlash. Nice work fellas in blaming things on the "unprecedented" climate! Just like 95% of losing traders, these guys and gals dug a grave for themselves with their trades, which was quite "unprecedented"! pay$ense
In the early going we are seeing continued support for equities in the form of higher volume buying. The selection of market-leading stocks gaining momentum continues to grow. I will look to add one more covered call position in the currently optimal environment. Of course, stop methods need to still be strictly adhered to. It is NOT a great win/loss ratio that creates a winning portfolio, but rather the religious containment of losses. I'm sure 2008 hammered that home to more than a few hopefuls. Meanwhile, with respect to day-traders, thus far we are having an "inside" day - constructive for bulls as yesterday's staunch gains are being consolidated.