This is the economics forum. ECONOMICS. Try not to be a carboard cutout like BrownMark, who still hasn't advised us of his exit of a long two days ago: Oh, and what you are trying to say is that you couldn't care less. Because if you could care less, then you actually care. Life must be very confusing for you.
Hard to say, because much of it is presently Trump-dependent. And the problem there is that even Trump himself doesn't know what he is going to do from one day to the next.
That would make Trump either a foreign agent or a self-saboteur. It's hard to say which given his hand-in-glove relationship with Putin on the one hand, and his penchant for business failure on the other.
A case could be made that he is Krasnov, the 1987 Moscow trip begins his uber-villain arc As for sabotage by design, this lays out the plot https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/as-stocks-plummet-trump-is-golfing-away.383940/#post-6114362 Meanwhile, the Isle of McDonald’s residents are planning reciprocal tariffs
@cesfx LOL. Been following Patrick Boyle for ages. He actually worked in the hedge fund industry and collaborated with Neiderhoffer for a while too (name is in the book credits). As for the retaliations coming into play, looks like Trump made the mistake of paying too much attention to Dalio's book, then over-reacted on the extreme side. In any case, it is interesting to see the rest of the world lining up for the counter punches. China was pretty aggressive yet simple. A Wham-Bam one-punch knockout to the S&P 500, while China stocks barely dropped in comparison. Canadians were far too polite, but victorious. Doug Ford of Ontario simply had to threaten turning off the light-switch to much of the USA, and suddenly that was the end of most tariffs. Though I think the bans on US alcohol and other products (are still in place)? There were only 11 Tesla dealerships opened in Ontario so far, but looks like those will likely be closed permanently in the near future. Rest of the country likely to follow suit. If the S&P 500 attempts to rally again next week after getting its ass handed to it in a hand-basket, I am curious to see the finishing total-knockout happen from the European Union. This 'liberation day' looks like it ends very, very, badly.
Imagine this nightmare scenario: The Federal Reserve kicks off another round of Quantitative Easing (QE) to calm the recession panic. But what if the rest of the world decides to offload their US Treasuries as a big "screw you" to Trump's tariffs? Here’s the fallout: First, we’d see chaos in the bond market. More QE means more money sloshing around, pushing interest rates down and likely weakening the US dollar. But if foreign investors start dumping their Treasuries in bulk, demand would plummet, causing yields to shoot up. This could completely cancel out the Fed's QE efforts, wreck the dollar even further, and hike up borrowing costs. The result? A potential economic disaster waiting to blow up in Trump's face.
Interesting, but I think it is unlikely that the rest of the world will ever agree on anything. The EU is the perfect example of 27 nations discussing for years about cucumbers size and plastic bottle caps. Hopefully we'd get some free trade out of this, although the method used by Trump can backfire.