Just got the backtest results... It looks like I was proven right. I'll test a bigger data containing a year from now on. You are right. Only time will tell this. I've waited that far, I can wait a few months. No, I will not. I don't want to share my work, but I want to share the results since there are many people here trying to achieve something similar for years, like I was, then seeing someone who might have done that MAY give them a little hope. That I can share. I will post on 12/06/2019. Until then, see you!
Start doing forward testing, backtest are rarely 100% reliable. Also do test actual bear conditions (like the first 8 months of 2018.
It works until it doesn't. A long-only system works until the market pulls back 10 or 20%, a couple times per year. Your backtests are showing you BS, and you will wipe out your account. We are now coming into an election year, the likes of which we have not seen, WITH an impeachment thing going on. These markets conditions have never happened before, with a Trump in the WH being impeached, the Senate and the Congress being as they were, after the Internet and social media explosion. Your past data is faulty, for it cannot fit the narrative of today. I admire your compunction to find the "truth", but the truth of it is, your model will break with 2020 elections coming up.
I was very nervous at the beginning. I'm even more nervous right now, because you wouldn't believe this week's return. I can not believe this is happening. Is that feeling normal? This was the eight consecutive week with positive return. This week was an outlier, though, I doubt it'll happen again soon... Let's see what next week bring. I'll post more info next week.
So far in this thread...I see too many emotional (feelings) statements here in your trade journal that only contains numbers. Also, you've asked is that feeling normal ? Usually when someone talks like that and continues posting numbers or phrases (e.g. eight consecutive week with positive return)...its too emotional (euphoria) for that trader and there's a growing fear when you hit your first drawdown (it will happen) that you will not be able to manage it psychologically considering you're manually trading. Simply, I would be more interested in knowing how you will handle your first drawdown and then see real trading results (I know you said its real but I really don't know that) after your first drawdown. A lot of traders start in spectacular fashion and then a small drawdown turns into a big drawdown. My point, enjoy these feelings while they last because there's no guarantees the feelings will continue. Last of all, start spending more time on learning about risk of ruin, how to minimize it and try to keep the emotions out of your trade journal unless your trade journal is about your emotions...so far there's been too much emotion statements. Trade Journals can be helpful but the can be a negative via instilling bad emotional behaviour that will show up when the results have hiccups / hit a speed bump. wrbtrader