On a humorous note, i was expecting a federal tax holiday during this shutdown. iRS is still working just fine! When my Comcast service is out i make sure i get a credit towards next periods bill. What are the chances of this with the feds.
No, there won't be a default. Tiny, tiny chance. You know what there will be and already is? A total and complete erosion of trust.
I think that's right. It's highly unlikely the limit isn't raised by the 17th. In the event it's not, the FED will keep the wheels going and just print money. This is mostly political grandstanding. Keep the spotlight on the losers in Washington. In the event Oct 17th comes and goes with no raise in the debt ceiling, AND the FED doesn't print, well, there goes the economy and stock market. Depression 1000%. But that won't happen unless the social controllers already decided to crash the economy. The FED has total control here.
I didnt see Jems post and i agree with his version. I read on ZH that CDS for The US is rising to what is an implied chance of 6% for a default. Everyone "knows" but still must burn money for protection. Thats gotta piss a lot of people off.
If push really comes to shove, then 14th Amendment, Section 4: The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
Is this an argument giving the FED cover to pay on the debts even if Congress does not want them too? or does not explicitly authorize them to do so.
Playing devils advocate and assuming there is a default I think Joe Six Pack, along with, James I sip martinis while making millions, are in for a surprise of just how bad things can get, how fast it can happen, and how truly screwed they're going to feel when they realize there is no re-set button. Like one previous person wrote, unless the powers that be have decided it's time to crash the world for fun and profit, this default never happens.