Hello NihabaAshi, Can you please point me in a direction where I can find more seasonal Tendencies for SP , NQ or Dow. Thanks a lot for one example on SP Oct 26th (Open a Long position) - Nov 14th Close. I simply loved it and would definitely wait for next year to have my hands wet on this trade. Please point me in a correct direction, I am very much interested in knowing more seasonal tendencies. Thanls alot Koms
I traded the stock index futures for over 10 years without ever looking at a chart. I was primarily a tape reader and watched the interaction of various indexes and indicators on the CNBC ticker. Back then on their bottom ticker their index and indicator tape appeared every 60 seconds. Eventually that went to every 3 minutes. However, if you really got down to it, I could have traded on a desert isleand using only the open, high, low, and last since my strategy was based on bounces off lows and reactions from highs during specific times of the days. I eventually moved on to trading mutual funds and never looked at charts there either. Now that the fund trading game is passe, I trade individual stocks and all I do is look at charts for stocks that are in tight rising channels. However, once in a trade, I never look at the charts since it is a game of price movement and managing the trade. I believe the way we trade has a lot to do with how we are wired internally.
Well being a grain trader of days gone by, i would have been a fool to think the seasonals were anything but a guideline to put on a longer position trade. Are you saying to trade the seasonals you are not concerned with a so called DEMAND mkt? A demand mkt is where if the commodity in question is wanted then the seasonal "TENDENCY" is throw out the window. What about those retraces? Drawdowns will turn even a brass stomach to mush. Automatic entry is based on what? What was the premise of the original coding? I think many are missing the point. I basically was referring to LOOKING at a chart and SEEING just a few simple basic movements that are even possible from price movement, and that those that are observed on the chart are indeed the basis for entering the trade. Thus technical analysis is used more than ever.
Someone posted "there are traders that look at charts but do not use indicators'......How is that "NOT" looking at a chart and using the "BASIC" information from a chart? charts are what makes the game work..... Fess up!!!!!
As with anything in trading... If you don't know how to manage the risk... Best not to take the trade. Look at it this way... Lets pretend on a Wednesday when a particular key economic report is released the ES has risen an average of +1.75 points... Every single time for the past 3 years and 8 months with an average retrace after entry of -0.75 prior to moving back up to reach +1.75 points. If your worried about drawdowns or don't know how to manage your stops... If you don't have the ability to re-enter a trade if stopped out for a loss... If your unable to prevent violating basic money management rules... Best not to take the trade. My point...if you know the seasonal tendency... You should also know how much it retraces on average. Simply, seasonal tendencies trade aren't just about the profit. You need to know everything else that the trade has a tendency to do prior to entry. If not...you no longer have the odds in your favor and it really isn't a trade based upon a seasonal tendency. Therefore, best not to take the trade or look for another reason to take the trade. Once again...the answer is yes. I just gave an additional input to go along with other stuff many traders called simple trading... Pivot Points, Moving Average crosses, Range Breakouts, Hooks (for continuations) etc... Regardless if you use price patterns on charts or not. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
mark, i disagree, but am going to throw in the towel on this thread, i think the main point has been missed by quoting a line here and a line there. The gist is being missed. When you get out of a seasonal trade because of the drawdown and get back in as you say. How in the world is that not technical trading? Technical trading is technical trading, either simple or esoteric. but i throw in the towel because as someone else stated, no sense in getting into indicator semantics. If seasonals are not about money, What are they about, the weather?.....:eek: I must be missing the boat in trading the ES by not following some silly statistic from a book, the real world is not quite as defined as such. Elvis has left the building......
Hi bighog, I never said seasonals are not about money. You also made some assumptions in your prior post about what I thought seasonal tendencies were... I didn't address that but I will address this assumption you made or think I have. Once again, I never said seasonals are not about money, not about technicals, not about charts... Some traders need verification from charts while others just need verification from price data only. You asked the following question... I responded with an answer as YES along with giving a reason when I've done such in the past... Along with a factual example of such type of method. A seasonal fact that's easily verififiable by anyone with historical data on the S&P. (not some silly fact) My point is that there are traders out there using charts to trade for example end of year rallies or November patterns and so on... Whereas there are other traders that trade the same stuff without charts. Here's something to think about... Lets say you made a profitable trade because of some breakout of a pivot point area... Another trader made the same trade at the same time due to a key candlestick pattern... Another trader made the same trade at the same time due to elliot wave counts... Another trader made the same trade at the same time due to seasonal tendencies... Another trader made the same trade at the same time due to hearing a tip from a close friend that has consistently given him/her profitable trading advice... All of those trading situations described above if your backtesting show has a good chance to result as a profit... Then your real trading results confirms something that you've backtested... Those are stats...not something that should be underestimated or overlooked as a silly stats. Think about about...if your close buddy (guy that lives down the street) gave you 12 trading advice over the past year and all of them were profitable and you know he makes a living as a trader... Your telling me those are stats your going to ignore when he gives you advice #13 ??? If your pivot point breakouts are profitable 82% of the time... Your telling me those are stats your going to ignore ??? If between Oct 26th - Nov 14th the S&P had not had a losing duration since 1990 and has profited on average about +31 points each year in that duration... Your telling me those are stats your going to ignore ??? If someone tells you they have had a losing trading day on the last 21 Fed Announcement trading days while using the same trading method...that's profitable on average on all other trading days... What should that trader do the next Fed Announcement... Try a new method or sit on the sidelines (go play golf, go to the zoo with the family, read a good book, do some needed home repairs et cetera) ??? Yes...you are missing the boat via your reference to it as silly stats or as someone (jackbyrd) once said here at ET... Futures traders are a delusional bunch and that NihabaAshi guy means well. Yet, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the weather... Although there is well over a foot of snow on the ground here at Stoneham in Quebec. Thinking outside the Box. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term