Well, I cannot predict market direction. I wonder if *weekly* predictions would be easier. I don't think anyone can predict it to the day. Well, I mean, the scammy "gurus" can. I've never seen a "guru" who is profitable or has any profitable followers, although I've seen a bunch of them get called out which I find hilarious. Then they get mad and ban the person from their trading room. If someone was profitable and had nothing to hide then they wouldn't have any reason to ban people or kick people out. They would also welcome backtests. I find it hilarious when scammers say something like "backtesting is pointless. Only forward testing matters." What that really means is "if you backtest my system that I am trying to charge you money for you will see that it doesn't work and you might cancel your subscription, so I'm going to try and make you think that backtesting doesn't prove anything anyway."
The reason why I started this thread was : When you stare at your charts, read your blogs, articles, run your FCF and DCF analysis, check with other traders, follow all other global macro events........ is it then possible to have a set-up SOO reliable that you are willing to bet your reputation on ONE call for the next day. I am not 100% sure about tomorrow, so I won't do it for tomorrow. Are you? There are soo many opinions on this site, but they usually are hedged with something else. and if we all agree that we don't really know one day in advance, then i'll be happy with that outcome. but soo many of us like to talk about this quarter, next week, next year, as if it is matter-of-fact. Like this.... "The S&P WILL trade below 1200 again, that I'm 100% positive about". But since that can't help you trade, I wanted to do it only one day in advance. if worthless thread, my bad.
So...you want people to post worthless predictions...? Why - so "we" can mock them for being wrong so often? I must be missing something.
I will be happy to play, but why do I have to be right 100% of the time. No one can do that. Isn't just making money good enough?
I think BlueTurtle's idea on this thread is valid, I would go so far as to say (or repeat) is that the point of the exercise is to prove that trading is not about predicting and all the gurus who wish to big note themselves by predicting are f**'n clueless when it comes to the principles of trading. However BlueTurtle's suggestion of being struckoff the game when you get one wrong is pointless, one can be 40% correct in placing bets on their signal direction and still make a profit. I think its about 30% win rate which can be profitable, much below this is futile if I recall from previous testing I had once done. My personal opinion on why gurus predict via the media is to actually suck in noobs to believe this is how you should trade. Smart money controls the media imo and what better way to make money than talk BS to the great unwashed.
So, if I make 10 correct predictions, and 1 wrong prediction, I am out? According to my calculations, you'd need about 1000 participants in this game to have 1 single person remaining after round 10.
The way this game works is that those with a Guru complex wont post, those that don't give a crap, will A Guru's worst fear is being wrong in public, Guru thinks trading is about being right, that's why Guru's suck.