I'm so sorry this story is taking so long to develop folks! > The main thing is we HAD to be in before the first reporting period for the AA numbers. And frustratingly, I have not been able to track down that date yet! My contention is wall street has no idea what they are in for. The price on EDA today will finally go over $12 & I expect closer to $14 in 2 weeks. I have spoken with Charles Kirk of the Kirk report who some of you may be familiar with- he did a piece on SAC investments which left out our dear EDA. He told me he is considering doing a piece solely on EDA in the near future. Since his posts get clipped and passed around by the Yahoo fanatics on their message boards- I look forward to that possibility. Also a couple more blank check Co's are on the way & the interest from hedge funds is VERY high. You will start reading some negative stories about the corporate structure of these entities ( I already read one in BW online) but the fact is pedigree wise we have the best in Endeavor. So the big questions are (1) When is earnings? (2) What company will they buy next? LET'S REMEMBER OUR CORPORATE PEEPS! *Endeavor's president, Jonathan Ledecky, is familiar with unusual financing vehicles; he founded U.S. Office Products, the once-hot roll-up that went bankrupt in 2001 (long after Ledecky cashed out). Boldfaced names on the board include Kerry Kennedy, Bobby's daughter, and Edward Mathias, a managing director at the Carlyle Group. The following is a MILD concern at the moment- not major... *On Jan. 31 the same group formed a new $250 million SPAC, Victory Acquisition, underwritten by Citi. The filing notes that it could compete directly with Endeavor. And as with Endeavor. >Hedge funds are drawn to these investments. Since SPACs typically must announce a deal within 18 months of their IPOs or return the money raised, with interest, hedgies see them as safe places to park cash while potentially profiting from the price fluctuations between a deal's announcement and its close - a sort of arbitrage play. That may be why Steven Cohen's $12 billion hedge fund SAC Capital snapped up 8.7 percent of Endeavor's stock when the deal was announced.... Go Steven! ~ stoney
I hate to bring up such an old topic, but i didnt want to start a new one with the same idea. I like the stock here at 12 with the deal expected to go through in a few months. EDA has released some of AA's numbers and I think they look great. 70% EBITDA growth YoY, 30% Revenue(55% on retail, 9% wholesale business), and still getting a fairly cheap valuation. It is a little bit difficult to find good info on the company though. Here is what I have for what i think it will look like when the deal goes through, please correct any mistakes I may have, i am still a rookie: Shares Sold when EDA was formed: 19.91 Million Shares Issued for Acquisition: 32.2 Million Total Shares: 52.11 Million Share Price: $12 Market Cap: 625 Million Cash: 127 Million AA Debt taken on: 110 Million Enterprise Value: 610 Million Through the first 2 quarters of 2007 sales have been 170 million with EBITDA of 28 Million. I will be looking into these numbers and comparing them to others tomorrow, but if you give the company a multiple like ZUMZ or UA they would be well in the 20's. Sorry for the old topic but I still find this a great play and I hope StonedInvestor and the rest of you are still in it. I've included some info to make it easier on anyone interested: Q2 07 American Apparel Earnings: http://home.businesswire.com/portal...d=news_view&newsId=20070820006024&newsLang=en Merger Agreement: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1336545/000119312506256454/dex991.htm Street.com Videos, old but easy to watch and get an idea of the company: http://www.thestreet.com/video/inde...ket+Strategy&cm_ven=&cm_cat=&cm_ite=#10380314 http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=1373_10333084&channel=Market+Strategy#10333084 (^ skip to 2:45 if you want) I think thats enough for tonight, hopefully some of you are still interested in discussing it.
Hedge Thanks (I think) I gave up on it & now immediately have it on my top five watch list. My first response is the "Made In America" aspect is going to mean more than ever in the near future. I'm looking at everything I buy and trying not to buy China stuff. 2nd response- is price point wise AA should have a great X -Mas , people can still afford T-shirts... 3rd Response- I've always thought they could buy out INNO and start a Jeans line. 4th Response- Why has this deal; taken so freakin' long to close? 5th Response- since they don't appear to be building a group of franchises and it's going to be hard to raise funds from here- Should Endeavor Corp endeavor to change their name? I'd rather buy American Apparel stock and may I suggest the symbol of AAG- American Apparel Group. It's available. thanks for the heads up- ~ stoney
Im still am not positive on how these blank check companies work, it was my understanding that they would just buy one company, AA, and then become that company, refile as them and EDA shareholders would now be the AA shareholders. Is that not always the case? Another thing i am a little confused on is the warrants. Will new shares be issued for these causing more dilution, or are they already included in the 52 million? Right now I've got an estimate of 357 million in sales for 2007, giving them a 1.75 price to sales ratio, compared to Urban Outfitters and ZUMZ, 2.9 and 4.1, and they show similar growth to AA. So if my calculations and assumptions are with in a wide margin of error, I can see the stock going to 20.
WELL I'M IN. Hedge, Nkhoi and others those of you that bought and held $10.50 to $13.50 have made 30%! WHO SAID BUY AND HOLD doesn't"T WORK. Of course all of us are out of it the money spent chasing a variety of good and bad moves... We were the 1st to highlight this stock and now I'm hearing chatter... the American Apparel numbers seem outrageous compared to the rest of retail... They are going to c change their name officially at the next meeting... and stock holders who have held for 1 year are just now up a buck.... in other words... RETAIL COILED SPRING. Today's spike was imp[impressive and it has settled back quite a bit- I'm going in while it still has a $13 handle-- I think our original pie in the sky prediction that this stock would doubt;e to $20 is going to come true. We all need to learn to buy and hold again. ~stoney
I've been following this merger/acquisition for a while. The vote is tomorrow at 10AM. If the deal goes through, I think we'll see 20 in no time, and I think it's going to go much higher than that. LULU is a good comparison, and look where that is trading. We could see 30+ in the not too distant future. Just to update everyone, Endeavour and American Apparel will merge into a single company with the name "American Apparel" and be listed on a major American stock exchange. Dov Cheney (founder of AA) will be majority share holder (55%) and the companies CEO/President.
Is that why I can't find it? My god this thing nosedived from a pretty price left me holding my pants up with one hand... we are fighting two wars here- the specific stock... and the market's perception and punishment of retail. With all of retail down 20% for the most part it was arrogant of me to wait for my $20 pricer target for EDA now APP... Still I'm a retail believer so I hold along with JCG & GAIA. I haven't checked up on EDA now APP since the sell the news on the merger I figured I'd give it two -4 weeks weeks and hope to sell out at $19-$25...~ stoney
Man, when i first heard about this, EDA was at 12.xx now at 15.xx. I am wonder if it is too late? So you want to wait 4 weeks to see where it ends up? Or buy now and hold it for 4 weeks? Or dump when it hits 20? is that what you are saying?
I dont think it is too late at all to get in. Its tough to find good stats on the company so Ill post some. 74 million shares, 1.1 billion market cap, 2007 sales should be 360 Million. gives us a P/S ratio of 2.9, compare that to URBN, VF corp, LULU, CROX. Q3 same store sales were 27%. 175 stores now, trying to expand to 800. I think it will take more than 2-4 weeks for this stock to be fairly valued, so be patient. Once we start getting analyst and media coverage we should start moving up towards 20 and then after Q4 earnings it should be off to the races. By year end 2008 I expect this to be over $30, and if its not? then I will happily own a good company at a great price and use it as a chance to buy more. Im happy to see some discussion going on about this stock, good luck.