Let's discuss trading styles that don't involve prediction

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 1a2b3cppp, May 2, 2013.

  1. I really like your prediction above!
     
    #11     May 3, 2013
  2. Sounds like an oxymoron to me...
     
    #12     May 3, 2013
  3. Let's discuss trading styles that don't involve oxymoron.
     
    #13     May 3, 2013
  4. Well, I am predicting that price will continue to be random!
     
    #14     May 3, 2013
  5. I think your random prediction above is actually quite valid, sometimes!
     
    #15     May 3, 2013
  6. deaddog

    deaddog

    Pick a stock or whatever market you like to trade.

    Pick a time frame. Make your trade in the middle of a price bar. (5 minute bars make your trade at 2 ½ minute into the bar)

    Flip a coin. Heads you go long, tail you go short.

    If you are in a loss position at the end of the bar. Sell. (Cut your loss short)

    If you are in a profit position at the end of the bar. Hold and place a stop at break even.
    Trail your stop below the previous bar. (Let your winners run)

    You can probably improve on this method buy going with the prevailing trend.
     
    #16     May 3, 2013
  7. mspkash1

    mspkash1

    assuming no one on ET take trades flipping a coin, if you just have a long or short bias (based on whatever you want to look at - price, indicators etc), one can follow what you mentioned provided the wins are more than the small losses.
     
    #17     May 3, 2013
  8. deaddog

    deaddog

    By flipping a coin you are not predictive.
     
    #18     May 3, 2013
  9. All speculative (i.e. profit-seeking) trading positions involve prediction - you are predicting that the asset you trade will turn out to have been mispriced, such that the expected win rate * payoff ratio of your repeated trades will, over time, lead to long-run profit above transactions costs.

    If you have no predictions about the market then you have no logical justification for increasing your risk by taking on trading positions. With no prediction, your expected long-run return from trades is zero minus transactions costs.
     
    #19     May 3, 2013
  10. I think what the OP means is that he has found nothing that consistently works.
     
    #20     May 3, 2013