Pretty much, yes. I think it's more like sell by end of August or some time in September for the last years. Last 10 years: May: Green with a close above Open and a close near top of the range 90 % of the time. June: Green 70 % of the time (there was a big down month in 2022), close above Open 70 % of the time and close in mid-range or higher 60 % of the time. July: Green with a close above Open 90 % of the time. Close in top of the range 80 % of the time. Doesn't strike me as bearish at all on that basis alone.
Lower rates seemed to help value indexes like the Dow Jones (YM) until this last down move where YM moved down with rates I guess bad economic news is finally bad market news. The NQ doesn't seem to care but that's been true since November 2023. The ES is just (YM+NQ/2) so its better to go long NQ & short YM. That has worked pretty well for the last few weeks. I think I've said it before even the NQ is a laggard to the real driver of the US markets and that is the Semiconductor companies (the SMH or SOXX ETF here in the states). AMD & Intel aren't doing too well so just cut to the chase and buy NVDA AVGO ARM MU TSM QCOM.