let's assume Germans won't bail out

Discussion in 'Forex' started by filter, Apr 28, 2010.

  1. filter

    filter Guest

    and US follows with bond implosion.
    then US prints more paper, leads to inflation.

    which currency then will have the best strength? JPY? CAD?
  2. moarla


    it depends all on who has to pay the CDS for the debt. I am shure we will see other stupid bankers and goverment banks lol

    (lets assume that all the debt is backed by CDS)
  3. What does it have to do with CDS?

    My guess would be that short-term JPY will strengthen as a result of repatriation flows, but I wouldn't be long JPY long-term. Ultimately, you wanna be long ccies, whose sovereigns are relatively self-sufficient. So I'd guess CAD, AUD, NOK, SEK, RUB and things of that sort.
  4. I'm not comfortable with RUB; the other currencies are on my short list along with CLP.
  5. 4EXJOE


  6. moarla


    well lets assume Goldmann is the only liable because holding the other part of the CDS, then it wouod be mean something for the USA, if all are in hand of some swiss bank, then for the CHF.

    I dont think that any of the greek EURO - debt is without CDS backup...

    btw, the most CDS for Greek debt is sold by Deutsche Bank but i think they sold them early enough...
  7. Are you mad? Sovereign CDS has absolutely nothing at all to do with anything... Please do stop saying this nonsense.
  8. I am long CHF, but, according to some data, Swiss banking system is quite exposed to the Eurozone peripherals. The Eurozone is also their main trading partner, still. I think it's still hard for Switzerland to not catch a cold when the Eurozone sneezes.
  9. emg


    if germany refused to bailout, greece will ask emg es day trader for help. ka -ching!!
  10. Of course they'll bail out Greece.
    #10     Apr 28, 2010