What? You post the results from <1 F'n day... with most gains between $0.40 and $2.00... and you think that means something? Let me highlight that again... "1 F'n DAY"? Have I got this straight... you traded. Spent all day in front of the screen, "successfully" scalping your brains out... for a gain of $22, rather than working a regular job? Save it for April 1.
So far, I'm coming out ahead during today's activity, but not enough yet to make up for the disaster known as yesterday! I bought GBPUSD even though there was no pullback in my secondary trigger line. But because this was not a justifiable move, I did not do so in my live OANDA trading account. The fact that it paid off made me curious as to what fundamental factors might be at play, so I checked with yesterday's economic calendar and the information available at the Forex Live website, but was unable to find out what's going on. (I noted in a recent post that I no longer pay much attention to economic calendars because the behavior of exchange rates during such events was factored into my Numerical Price Prediction system during its development.) All that notwithstanding, if I am indeed getting in on the ground floor of an overall trend reversal in some of the markets, perhaps I will be out of the hole I dug myself into yesterday by Wednesday of next week. (I find Fridays and Mondays to be notoriously poor days for trying to trade successfully.) I am once again long CADJPY, but opted not to use a 35-pip stop loss as I was hoping to begin doing. It is simply more than I am willing to risk should it turn out that a particular currency pair decides to execute a wholesale reversal. If stopped out for...say...15 to 20 pips during trades that would've ultimately turned out successfully, I will simply have to attempt recouping my losses from subsequent trades, as I am doing today.
My only concern is that even if GBPUSD actually is initiating a wholesale reversal, I would not anticipate it climbing any higher than perhaps 1.3251, and it is already more than half way there!
I just entered a USDCAD long position with an approximate 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio, seeing as how I do not yet have any clear indication that its day-to-day trend has turned bearish, and the rate has just crossed above my secondary trigger line (though the indicator is not yet hooked upward, making this trade a bit premature).
Statistically, I would expect the odds to be very much in favor of NZDUSD coming down from 0.6662, and have therefore entered a short position @ 0.6645.
Today was another rough day, but I was EXTREMELY pleased with its outcome. I did not make any materially significant changes to my chart setup, reinforcing my conclusion a few weeks back that it is in its final form, but my struggle to navigate yesterday’s events led to a much more accurate and precise defining of the roles played by its various components… … which should be quite helpful in boosting the success rate of the pseudo-swing approach I am applying to the Numerical Price Prediction system and in furthering my expertise with respect to its implementation.
To evaluate market conditions with global bias in mind, I was continually switching back and forth between daily charts and 60-minute charts, which I found to be a bit tedious. Consequently, I just modified my one-hour charts to include the global bias. I have also added standard stop loss and take-profit target levels that are automatically plotted on the chart mathematically. Based on these modifications, AUDJPY, which has a bearish global bias, looks to be considering a reversal south. However, before buying the pair, I would need for it to crawl below my confirmation trendline, currently located at 81.04, or at the very least, below my stop loss at 81.18. To enter a long position, I would need for a candlestick to open and close north of all my intraday trendlines. AUDUSD has a bearish global bias. The intraday trend is bearish, with the rate having hit the lower stop loss, so I am likely to enter a short position if and when a candlestick opens and closes south of my confirmation trendline. CADJPY has a bullish global bias. Its current structure justifies entering a long position with a take-profit target somewhere in the area of 86.55 and a stop loss of 85.92. EURGBP has a bearish global bias. However, it was scraping the bottom of the daily price range when it hit 0.8755, so its current location is within the lower region of the universal spectrum. To enter a long position, I would need for a candlestick to open and close north of my confirmation trendline, currently located at 0.8797 and falling. I’m not much interested in entering a short position, but that would be an option if a candlestick opens and closes south of all my intraday trendlines. EURAUD’s global bias reversed from bullish to bearish just within the last two days. Its situation is similar to that of EURGBP. I would consider entering a long position if the rate climbs above my confirmation trendline, currently located at 1.5856 and falling. The global bias is relatively neutral for EURJPY. The day-to-day trend is currently bullish, so one could justify entering a long position with a stop loss of 128.52 and a take-profit target of 129.39. The global bias is slightly bearish for EURUSD but is also arguably overall neutral. The intraday trendlines are currently conflicting with one another, but I would be inclined to enter a long position if and when the rate opens and closes a candlestick north of them all, with a take-profit target up around 1.1450 to 1.1460. The global bias of GBPJPY is bullish. Several intraday trendlines are verging at the moment, so the next move to make depends on what happens next. GBPUSD has a relatively neutral global bias. I would be inclined to enter a long position if and when a candlestick opens and closes north of all my intraday trendlines with a take-profit target of 1.3047. The global bias of NZDJPY is bearish with respect to September, but relatively neutral for the month of October. The rate is currently located in a region of horizontal resistance, so I would be inclined to enter a short position if candlesticks begin forming below 75.02, with my stop loss at 75.51. (Currently, the most recent calculated level of statistical support is all the way down at 73.58.) NZDUSD has a bearish global bias. Since candlesticks are already forming below the short-term intraday trendlines, one could argue in favor of entering a short position. However, such a move has not yet been validated by my confirmation trendline. The automatic stop loss for a short position has been plotted at 0.6691. The global bias for USDCAD is relatively neutral. The rate is currently located in the center of a price range that keeps oscillating back and forth, so I was going to skip this pair. But on second glance, I would consider entering a short position if a candlestick opens and closes south of all my intraday trendlines, with the stop loss at 1.3129, and a conservative take-profit target of 1.3069 USDCHF’s global bias turned bullish about eleven days ago. Statistical resistance is somewhere up around 1.0081, which is what I would use for a take profit target. My stop loss would be at the most recent local low, at approximately 0.9967. USDJPY has a bullish global bias. However, I would like to see the rate fall below or near 112.83 before entering a long position.
...or as soon as a candlestick signals a reversal in the trend by opening and closing south of all the short-term moving averages, whichever occurs first. This holds true as the dynamic stop loss for ALL open positions.