Based on the anecdotal observations I recorded on Sunday (see above) I see a USDJPY long position as my best opportunity at this time to begin reversing my misfortunes with NZDUSD. Given where I have positioned my stop loss and my take-profit target, the reward-to-risk ratio is probably somewhere between 1:2 and 1:3. This is because the pair is currently experiencing a pullback, which is what I want, but I will not be able to monitor the asset on an ongoing basis, and will therefore be unaware when the pullback is over—the point at which the trade should ideally be carried out. (It could hypothetically happen on the very next candlestick!) Hence, I am executing the trade now. But if I wish to avoid being stopped out of an otherwise profitable trade, I need to place my stop loss in accordance with my data (the numbers), which is why I chose 112.29. Because I believe the mathematical probability/statistical odds of price actually hitting 112.97 to be extremely high on this trade, I am willing to accept the very poor reward-to-risk ratio.
I opted to exit my NZDUSD position with a 12-pip loss vs. the approximately 30-pip loss I was facing earlier. Moreover, the deficit was partially offset by the 7 pips of profit I pocketed from my USDJPY long position. If I get a red 1-hour candlestick from USDJPY in the next couple of hours however, I am likely to reenter the position (given that I am expecting the pair to initiate a multiple day trip north).
NZDUSD's "grand sentiment" is still bearish, but seeing as how the day-to-day trend has become decidedly bullish, not to mention that shorting the pair has burned me three times now, I have entered an "aggressive" long position @ 0.6553 (because I do not have the luxury of waiting around for my secondary trigger line to signal the ideal moment to make the trade) with a nonnegotiable take-profit target of 0.6571. I am also long USDCAD @ 1.3112 with a nonnegotiable take-profit target of 1.3146.
If I had stayed with the USDJPY position I might have been at break even right now, which is the whole point of this exercise: to build up the discipline to remain in such trades. But I'm not at all adverse to locking in profits given the opportunity, so the only way I might have done things differently is if I had begun fading out of the position. My expertise has not yet advanced to that level though, so for the time being, that's just the way it goes. It looks like I've been trading a little bit more conservatively in my live account, and done a bit better as a result. But to realize the kind of exponential growth I'm shooting for, I need to reap a minimum of $1.80 per day initially, and at $2.69 after 3 days, that puts me -$2.71 behind schedule...or no...more than that because the goal goes up a little each day. But I just reminded myself that I am trading at a disadvantage right now because I am not monitoring my positions. When I go back to trading full-time, all of the information I'm gathering now is likely to make realizing a 5% daily return on my account balance (more than double my target) not at all difficult to achieve, which I hope I am saying as an objective observation and not out of a desire to build myself up.
I overlooked CADJPY on Sunday when I assessed all the currency pairs I watch on a regular basis, but it caught my eye today, so this is what I see… First of all, what I’ve been labeling as the grand sentiment I think I’m going to start calling global bias instead, and CADJPY’s overall bias has generally been bullish ever since the 20th of March, and certainly since the end of June. So with the day-to-day descent that began on the 2nd of October showing signs of possibly coming to an end, I plan to enter a long position come the next significant pullback if I’m there to do so.
The global bias of EURJPY has been more or less neutral ever since the 4th of July, but given that the pair appears to have just ended a 24-day descent of the day-to-day trend, it might opt to rise over the next few days. I will therefore be looking for an opportunity to enter a long position on the next significant pullback.
Wouldn't you know it? NZDUSD stops me out for a loss four times for entering short positions. So I adjust to the changing day-to-day sentiment and finally buy the asset, and just when I do, NZDUSD is threatening to stop me out for another loss, but this time for entering a long position! And just when I was on the verge of digging myself out of the hole I'd gotten myself into too... I can't say whereas I'm surprised though, seeing as how the global bias has never deviated from its bearish sentiment.
EURGBP is experiencing a major pullback in the midst of a day-to-day trend that is full-on bullish. Normally I would see this as a prime opportunity to enter a long position. But the pair's global bias is still bearish, and its structure is such that if it is not in the process of initiating a reversal south right now, I would expect it to do so within the next four days or so. Especially since there are other currency pairs that appear to be reversing the direction of their daily trends as well. Consequently, I'm going to remain on the sidelines for now. (In fact, I would not be surprised to witness the pair turn south over the next week or so.) ON MY RADAR FOR ENTERING LONG POSITIONS: CADJPY EURJPY GBPJPY