Let Your Profits Run!

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Oct 26, 2018.

  1. expiated


    In November of 2015 I began “perfecting” a guerrilla style of scalping the Forex market that I never felt reached its fullest potential until just recently. But ironically, now that I have completed its development, I am unable to trade it due to contractual obligations that, at least for the time being, are substantially more profitable.

    This forced me to adapt my system, which I call Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), to more of a pseudo-swing style of trading, something I was never able to do with any degree of success until now.

    However, my scalper mentality has repeatedly led me to take gains off the table early out of fear that they will evaporate quickly, only to discover that, had I remained in the trade, price would have eventually hit my target exit point to deliver on my original goal.

    So having now gained a sufficient amount of confidence deploying NPP from more of an intraday-swing rather than intraday-scalping posture, next week I plan to begin carrying out an exercise in self-discipline in which I will refuse to allow myself to exit my trades until and unless I am stopped out of the relevant position or my predetermined destination has been reached, which will be more or less equivalent to “letting my profits run.”
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2018
    tommcginnis likes this.
  2. expiated


    Notes to self:

    If you sell AUDJPY, do not exit before 78.64.
    If you sell EURJPY, do not exit before 126.68.
    If you sell EURUSD, do not exit before 1.1340.
    If you sell NZDJPY, do not exit before 72. 41.
    If you sell NZDUSD, do not exit before 0.6470.
    If you buy USDCHF, do not exit before 1.0021.
  3. wrbtrader


    Do you come back here to the forum to read your "self notes" or are they already written down and visable on your trading desk...like a sticky note on your monitor or wall next to your trading desk ???

    tommcginnis likes this.
  4. expiated


    I come back here to the forum to read my self-notes. My desk is already full of and surrounded by other notes and post-its having to do with websites I use as references and ideas I have for the numerous resources and publications I regularly create for my clients (I design curriculum materials for teachers and educational facilities in the U.S. and abroad).

    Moreover, I find the market too dynamic and in constant flux to write down too much. I mainly just want to use my initial thoughts as a jumping off point and also be able to come back and see how much the situation changed or how correct my original assumptions turned out to be after spending a day or a week reacting to the market in real time. (It's too easy for me to lose or misplace notes of this kind if I locate them on my desk/monitor.)
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2018
  5. Onra


    Are you planning to sell it as a system or as a daily report with recommendations?
  6. ………...and cut your losses!
  7. expiated


    Anecdotal notes from a birds-eye view...


    For the past three months the grand sentiment has been bearish, but just barely, with the slope southward being rather subtle. Starting about nine days ago, the pair spent about five days trying to turn north, but failed to do so.

    Perhaps the best scenario would be to enter a short position after the pair climbs above at least 80.80 and then begins to hook south again.


    The grand sentiment has been unequivocally bearish since the end of January. Theoretically, the best setups would be opportunities to enter short positions following a climb anywhere above 0.7161.


    The grand sentiment turned bearish about two months ago. The day-to-day trend has been bullish for about 12 days now, so if and when the rate finally hooks south, it could mark the beginning of an extended period of opportunities to profit from short positions.


    The grand sentiment has been relatively noncommittal and more-or-less neutral for a number of months now. Though down from January and February of this year, the pair has been side-winding along sort of in consolidation, especially since May or June.

    However, the day-to-day trend has been southbound ever since about the 26th of September, so when the daily trend does finally turn north, it could very well be for a protracted period of time, providing ample opportunities to profit from long positions.


    The grand sentiment has been relatively neutral for the past four months. Thirteen days ago the pair spent about five days trying to turn north, but has spent the next eight days since then heading south. Consequently, at this point the most promising scenario for an extended period of profiteering would be following a turning north of the day-to-day trend.

    Nonetheless, given that Friday saw the formation of a green candlestick in an otherwise bearish string of indicators, the recommended action at this time would have to be to watch for permission to enter an intraday short position.


    This pair is down from where it was at the end of January, but it has been taking an extremely seesawing, zigzagging, sidewinding series of paths to get here. The last time it turned south, it took about sixteen days up to three weeks to complete the process!

    It has been headed south another eight days since then. If it is going to continue doing so, perhaps the best opportunity to enter a short position would be following a day that witnesses the formation of a green candlestick.


    The grand or overall bias looks like it has been trying to turn north for two months now. The day-to-day trend has been bearish for eight days and Friday saw the formation of a green candlestick, so this might be a good time to enter an intraday short position.

    However, I would be much happier entering long positions after the day-to-day trend begins hooking north.


    This pair has been decidedly bearish ever since the end of January, but structurally, I would be more comfortable entering a short position it the rate were to pull back up to at least 73.97.


    This pair looks a lot like NZDJPY. It appears to have spent the last four days forming a new leg south, so with the formation of a candlestick on Friday that almost looks like a long-legged doji, the most logical move would be to enter a short position if and when the numbers grant their permission.


    The pair’s bearish grand sentiment is somewhat subtle, with the rate having not gone anywhere much in the last four months.


    With the formation of a red candlestick on Friday in the midst of an otherwise bullish chain, the obvious moved here is to enter an intraday long position when the numbers grant their permission.


    The grand sentiment has been bullish for seven months now. If it continues to be so, at the asset's current level (111.86) there is a lot of room above, structurally speaking, for a trader to profit from an extended long position once the day-to-day trend heads north. However, the pair has spent the last three days trying to turn south and looks to have succeeded on Friday, so that move will need to wait.

    (Based on these observations and the notes you wrote to yourself on Friday, be looking to short EURUSD and NZDUSD, and to buy USDCHF.)
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2018
    tomorton likes this.
  8. expiated


    While my strategies were under development, I had such thoughts. But at this point, I do not feel I could charge what the system is really worth.

    To be honest, what I would truly like to do is set up a physical location, one with numerous stations, where I could invite people to come in to observe my trading in real-time so they might profit from mimicking my actions (if they chose to do so).

    That way, I could benefit others without giving away the keys to the treasury for a mere pittance.

    But first, I have to prove the system is legitimate by swelling my own miniscule account from its meager beginnings to what one might have thought to be an impossible sum, a situation I doubt is any less than a year away.
    Onra likes this.
  9. expiated


    My system does not lend itself to daily reports with recommendations because it is a dynamic approach that is based on actual price action. Trades are not predicated on what price is predicted to do in the future, but on what rates are presently doing at the moment.

    For example, even though the day-to-day trend of a particular currency pair might be bearish, I may not enter a short position because its structure suggests that little room remains on the lower end of its price range, or because the intraday trend is bullish.

    Since the markets are constantly in flux, these situations (or conditions) could change at any given moment, so that the only way a trader would be able to take full advantage of my system would be for the individual to be there when it happens (or to be intimately familiar with how the system works, which I am unwilling to reveal for a couple of hundred, or even a few hundred, dollars—and certainly not for the price of a single book purchase).
  10. expiated


    None of the numbers has given me permission to enter a position yet, but since I was going to be leaving the house for a while and unable to monitor price on a continuous basis, I planed to purchase USDCHF anyway, placing my nonnegotiable take-profit target at 1.0024, and my stop loss at a level that one of my setups indicates would be statistically defensible (0.9954).

    However, when I went to do so I discovered that, unless I am wildly mistaken, OANDA is going to burden me with a 15-pip spread if I make the trade at this time!


    Forget that! I'll just have to keep my fingers crossed and hope that the go-ahead to make the trade doesn't trigger until the market is enjoying a bit more liquidity.
    #10     Oct 28, 2018