let us talk about the moon ...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by man, May 5, 2003.

  1. #11     May 5, 2003

  2. cal,

    apparently, dr. al larson has quantified and systemized that of which you speak. i am starting some research into these concepts.

    surfer
     
    #12     May 5, 2003
  3. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    obviously he know there will be many skeptic about his moon/tide system so he overwhelm them with his qualification first, smart man.
     
    #13     May 5, 2003
  4. Babak

    Babak

    Check out Arch Crawford of http://www.crawfordperspectives.com

    In late 2002 he made some predictions on TV which I wrote down to keep track of:

    2-3 week rally in Jan 03 ending in 3rd week of month
    Feb 16th an ugly day (may be day US goes to war)
    mkts to hit year low in March
    gold mkts will move up (high in June)
    US housing mkt turns down and stays bad for 2 yrs

    Also look at this:
    http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/newspage.html
     
    #14     May 5, 2003
  5. if you think that market action is a form of crowd behavior, then its not much of a stretch to think that natural phenomena can effect the market action. You have to be kind of closed minded to dismiss this off hand without even looking into it.
     
    #15     May 5, 2003
  6. CalTrader

    CalTrader Guest

    I have never seen any data anlysis that supports a predictive element influence of the lunar cycle on the markets. If somebody has conclusive proof of this and wants to freely distribute their reproducible study showing a reliable trading signal then I would surely be willing to consider the result. If the study was published in a respected peer reviewed international journal I might take the time to consider it: if all I see are web page links then I probably wont bother with it ... Anybody can post a web page link hoping to get hits on their site. That game has gotten pretty old. Nowadays I need a reason to even bother reading anonymous web site information ... unless its a really slow trading day and the bulk of my days trades have already run .....
     
    #16     May 5, 2003
  7. man

    man

    CalTrader
    I am a natural sceptic on everything sounding strange, since most things that sound strange a r e exactly that: strange.

    nevertheless I thought it would be rather easy to get an excelspreadsheet or a text file with the position of the moon in form of a number between 0 and 1 and correlate that with the market. I doubt it could be that easy and predict the trend, but I thought it could correlate positively with daily range and volatility.

    I bought a tree recently and was told it is necessary to consider the position of the moon to time planting. The guy who said that was way too much hands on everyday life to care for esoteric concepts - in fact I think he would regard esoterics as such a rather strange thing. To him the correlation between good growth of a tree and the lunar position at the time of planting is a simple fact. Nothing more.

    I for myself never got into this so far and it will require positive testing results to get me digging deeper. Nevertheless, I am curious ...

    Hannula got my interest at first with his rather rational explanation. When he explained several trading days using all planets I got a little worried that he might be slightly offtrack. Even if I believed heavily in astrology I would still think that their influences are rather subtle and therefore impractical for explaining everything ...

    Thanks everybody for posting. I haven't got that data so far, but as soon as I have it, I will post the results ...


    peace
     
    #17     May 6, 2003
  8. Yeah and the weather also ! What difference do you make between the weather and the moon apart from mysticism ?

     
    #18     May 6, 2003
  9. I know this site for many years. In fact it was one of the first time I realised that it was in the population of futures traders that there was an anormal level of mystics :D

    His qualification doesn't have to make him any economy of proof. In fact he has never written any statistical study about his moon effect. I read all his articles I found them interesting. In fact what he is sayng about the impact of electromagnetic field on human brain doesn't surprise me since I already heard of that kind of use for psycho arms by army using Tesla theory. But when I asked him about the astrology of the market itself which is not a physical entity he answered me that the impact of astrology is also true for non physical entity. Well in the mystical framework I don't have anything against such a claim but within actual scientific framework this is just a pure mystical claim :).

    And examining his trading technique he made a major use of classical indicators Like moving average and of course money management so that you can't conclude whereas his results really come from his knowledge of the moon or if it just an illusion.
    Following his charts the problem is that they arent fixed by advance but that he has the right to make translation and symetry of them so that he could just make them correlate to the market: this is a kind of curve-fitting.

    Perhaps he has discovered something interesting but it is far from evident to check it :D.

     
    #19     May 6, 2003
  10. Good, someone is going to do something. It is not the use of the ttest by itself that interests me but how you will prepare and use the datas and elaborate the protocol of the tests.

     
    #20     May 6, 2003