all models break down. the more constraints in the model, the more brittle. markets are social constructs, and as such, cannot be anticipated in all their depth by derivative models. trust in them and go short your own equity curve, in the long run.
Help us understand this. Does your model say this is the range for next week? Are these extremes at which you either go short or long? Is your bias up or down?
You are smoking crack if you think you can predict on such a long timescale. Shorter timescales are easier to predict. But.. we shall see.
I am Sherlock Holmes. In a previous life I was a data modeller and data warehouse specialist. Now I am a detective where I not only see but also observe. Once I observe what the crowd's mood is then I place a trade. Humans stay irrational longer than that the rational maths of any calculation are indicating. This is why indicators are called indicators - they merely give an indication of what might happen. But normally the goats only see and do not observe. Keep up the good work and trust your system fully. Never waver! Be sure to add to a loosing position because the longer / more you loose the closer the market is to a turn around when you will get that winner big time. Sherlock PS Thank you for contributing to the markets, it is much appreciated.
kalzayani Very interesting, I find your levels unique and have a highly probable way for you to trade them, through a diversifed approach. So ONE optimal way to play these numbers would be to go long and short at the same time and use your levels for TP'S. Exits or continuation will take place with your new calls. Let's see how this develops, please continue and thank you for your time. Michael B. P.S. Would you mind starting a Journal and tracking the 30 Oanda pair as an experiment with my above trading methodology?...or I could if you wish...I have the time. P.P.S. Folks, take it easy here. I am willing to prove this out. After the first week then make comments in the Journal and we can decide if we want to go on with the experiment. We might all learn something about Retail Spot Forex. kalzayani, you do not need to reveal your system, just provide me the calls and I will do the work in the simulator with trades and daily journal entries here on ET..