Less than 20% fall in home prices will destroy the banking system?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by moo, Mar 28, 2007.

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  1. volente_00

    volente_00


    what part of San diego ?
     
    #81     Mar 30, 2007
  2. volente_00

    volente_00






    If that is true then a 600k mortgage runs about 6k a month or 3k in rent as you claim so how is your friend only paying 1700 ?
     
    #82     Mar 30, 2007
  3. hillcrest/northpark area, not sure exactly where it lands
    cute little place, nice neighborhood, million dollar homes on the next street over
     
    #83     Mar 30, 2007
  4. General rule of thumb is $600 per each 100k borrowed on a 30 year fixed.
     
    #84     Mar 30, 2007
  5. 2ez

    2ez


    That's actually a very good question......but you may want to ask City Officials...because I don't understand it either....

    it's happening all over NY and NJ




    ENGLEWOOD -- Homeowners in the city's modest neighborhoods are likely to face huge tax hikes this year while those in wealthier areas get a break following the first property revaluation in more than a decade.

    Houses that had previously been valued at less than $120,000 -- about one-fifth of all homes in Englewood -- have almost tripled in value since the last citywide assessment in 1994. Those owners could end up paying $1,000 more in taxes this year. For some, the increase could be even more.

    "I'm not happy at all," said Richard Friedman, whose taxes could jump about $2,100 this year, according to an analysis of the revaluation by The Record. His one-bedroom home on Brook Avenue in the 3rd Ward, previously valued at $113,500, is now assessed at $382,000. The possible 45 percent tax increase leaves Friedman feeling "ripped off."

    Another 3rd Ward resident, Shirley Green, may have to fork over $1,600 more in 2007 if the city's overall tax burden grows at the same rate it did in 2006. "Wow," the 79-year-old retired schoolteacher said. "That's a lot of money. I'm still on a fixed income."

    Is your town next?
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The following North Jersey towns have upcoming revaluations:

    2007

    BERGEN COUNTY
    East Rutherford, Fair Lawn, Franklin Lakes, Hackensack, Teaneck

    PASSAIC COUNTY
    Paterson

    * * *
    2008

    BERGEN COUNTY
    Bogota, Carlstadt, Edgewater, Englewood Cliffs, Fairview, Garfield, Leonia, Mahwah, Maywood, North Arlington, Norwood, Oradell, Palisades Park, Ridgefield Park, Ridgewood, River Vale, Rochelle Park, Saddle Brook, South Hackensack, Wallington

    MORRIS COUNTY
    Boonton town

    "This tax raise will make me more frugal," Green predicted. "I'll be more careful about turning off lights. I'll try to save a little money on the heat. I'll be a little more careful on food purchases and gasoline."

    While some may feel sticker shock, others may get tax cuts. Those feeling the least pain will be owners of the city's priciest homes.

    "For us, I guess it's a good thing," said Ruth Lubat of 155 Chestnut St. in the 1st Ward. Following the revaluation, her mansard-roof home was reassessed at $2.25 million. But that's an increase of only 97 percent. That's far less than the typical increase, so Lubat could pay about $7,300 less in property taxes this year.

    The state requires every town to conduct periodic revaluations so that property assessments reflect true market values. That's because real estate prices change over time, so that some homeowners end up paying too much tax and others pay too little. By updating assessments, local governments make sure property owners pays their fair share of the local tax burden.

    Realty Appraisal of West New York conducted a revaluation of Englewood in 2005 for $639,000. But Englewood officials then asked the county for a year's delay. Realty Appraisal reassessed the city in 2006, charging an additional $124,000.

    The typical Englewood residential and commercial property increased in assessed value by 141.1 percent. That means that if your property increased more than 141.1 percent, you can expect an above-average tax increase this year. If your property increased less than 141.1 percent, you can expect a smaller tax increase, or you may even get a tax cut, according to The Record's analysis.


    To estimate your new property tax bill, multiply the new assessment by 0.0179.


    The estimate assumes a 4.5 percent increase in the 2007 tax levy, the same as 2006. Actual tax bills will go out this summer.

    This calculation showed Robin Greenfield that she may have to shell out $3,233 more in taxes this year. That's because the assessment on her Robin Road Colonial home went from $271,000 to $810,400 -- an increase of 199 percent.

    "I wasn't aware it was going to be that dramatic of an increase to my pocket," Greenfield said. "I have to sit down with my husband and a pen and paper and figure out what this means."

    Greenfield's 2nd Ward home is within walking distance of Ahavath Torah, an Orthodox Jewish synagogue.

    Greenfield said when she and her husband bought the house in 1999, it was partially because the taxes were only $7,800. "You're talking doubling that in the course of eight years," she said. "That's kind of ridiculous."

    It's common in a revaluation to find that smaller homes increased in value faster than larger homes, said Neil Rubenstein of Realty Appraisal.

    "There are a lot more buyers for smaller homes usually than for larger homes," Rubenstein said. "A million-dollar home does not triple in value as fast as a smaller home can."

    The good news for residents is that Englewood's commercial properties slightly increased in value, lessening the tax burden on homeowners. Commercial properties as a whole increased 148 percent in value, while residential properties increased nearly 143 percent in value.

    This is an unusual outcome after a North Jersey revaluation. In most other towns, homeowners end up shouldering more of the tax burden relative to businesses, Rubenstein said.

    "Englewood has got something that some towns don't have," Rubenstein said. "They have commercial new construction happening and a redevelopment zone right across from City Hall. That helped the outcome of the revaluation."

    Among residential properties, however, some streets will see dramatic tax shifts.

    On 3rd Street in the 4th Ward, for example, 31 homeowners maintain some of the city's smallest houses. The typical home nearly tripled in value -- far more than the citywide average. That will translate into about a $1,000 -- or 25 percent -- tax hike (assuming city, county and school budgets rise 4.5 percent this year, as they did in 2006.)

    Compare that to Lincoln Street in the 1st Ward, near the the private Dwight-Englewood School on the East Hill. There, 22 homeowners will see a very different picture when tax bills go out. For those residents, assessments barely doubled after the revaluation. So if the levy rises 4.5 percent this year, the typical Lincoln Street homeowner will see property taxes drop $3,400, or about 12 percent.

    "I'm surprised," said Alice Pierson of Lincoln Street. "It's very pleasant to have to pay less taxes." The Piersons will still pay an estimated $19,000 in property taxes, but that's about $1,900 less than last year.

    "That's perhaps too bad," Pierson said of the decrease, "because the people in the high end like me could afford to pay more, and the people who couldn't afford it are going to pay more."

    Pierson said she might donate her tax savings.

    "I'll have to put it into good works for Englewood to pay for things that aren't getting done," she said.

    E-mail: feibel@northjersey.com and sheingold@northjersey.com



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    #85     Mar 30, 2007
  6. volente_00

    volente_00




    Throw in property tax, insurance and pmi and you end up ~1000 for every 100k borrowed.
     
    #86     Mar 30, 2007
  7. True, unless you put 20% down and eliminate need for PMI (I know; it's rare these days).

    Also, taxes can run much higher.

    I pay $9,800 per year in property taxes.
     
    #87     Mar 30, 2007
  8. 2ez

    2ez


    o.k. so I know for sure you are not keeping up with current events.......Lenders are tightening up on HELOC too.


    here is a post I made the other day........some lenders are saying no more HELOC's over 50k for FICO's less than 660........not just on new HELOC....but existing lines too. Also, .......Lenders can an AVM and if the subject property is in a declining value area then that would impact the HELOC agreement as well.




    ---------------------------------------------



    on the news they can't say two words without saying subprime

    I read that HELOC's are now seen as very risky due to a lot of 100% financing and that they are second lien and with the way the RE market is a lot of companies are not doing them anymore at all or severly curtailing them.


    Then I read this in a blog...seems HELOC are being reduced for lower FICO scores and/or reduced values in homes:




    I opened a 100k heloc last May through a mortgage broker with citibank. There is now a 47k balance. This is the only loan on the property which they appraised at 230k. No missed payments or late payments, all was well until i got my statement yesterday which reduced my line from 100k to 48k. No letter, no phone call, no explanation whatsoever.

    I dig out my loan documents which list the usual reasons for such an event to transpire.

    1. Property value reduction

    2. material change in financial circumstances:

    3. citibank is notified by its regulatory agency that continued advances constitute an unsafe and unsound practice: No idea what this could mean.

    So i called the Texas call line to get this rep to tell me indeed the line limit had been halved but no explanation was available. My fico scores are 644, 654 and 694. The midscore at closing was 678.

    There are no new accounts on my reports, only old collection accounts(older than 5 years) that were on my reports when the loan was approved.

    My question is how do i respond? My first thought is to just get a new heloc but then i would have the early termination fees that get tacked on to accounts open for less than 36 months. Has this happened to anyone else and do i have any recourse?
     
    #88     Mar 30, 2007
  9. volente_00

    volente_00



    Define little place, because this is what shows up for rent


    http://sdhomessearch.signonsandiego.com/Rentals/SearchResults.asp



    Those are not 600k houses.

    My friend tells me housing is running ~ 200 a sq ft around sd. How many square feet is your friends house ?
     
    #89     Mar 30, 2007
  10. volente_00

    volente_00

    That is strange that they wait 13 years to reappraise. Here in Texas it is done every year. Seems like the state is screwing themselves by waiting that long.
     
    #90     Mar 30, 2007
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